The Invisible Human: A World Without Us

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What if an asteroid hit the Earth and humanity suddenly ceased to exist? How would the Earth survive or thrive without us?

Human bustle is like footsteps in the sand. Everything we do leaves a spot – whether it’s making a cup of tea, switching on a light button, or using a computer. All these apparently ordinary and unexciting duties require energy, which often adds heating gases to our atmosphere and increases our waste. As the human population grows, the Earth is struggling to carry our weight.

In this Earth beat, have a look on Alan Weisman’s site and book The World Without Us and imagine how natural and built environments would look if we disappeared.

People probably won’t be disappearing anytime soon, but possibly there is way we can make ourselves invisible. Take it from Colin Beavan, who calls himself the No Impact Man. He spent an entire year trying not just to lessen his environmental footprint, but erase it all together.

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Future generations’ fate is at stake in Copenhagen

Negotiators will try to reach a political compromise on fighting climate change in Copenhagen

Negotiators will try to reach a political compromise on fighting climate change in Copenhagen. Countries including the United States are backing away from commitments made two years ago to fight climate change.

Only globally coordinated international law that is binding and can be enforced through sanctions when violated is capable of possibly preventing Greenland’s ice sheet from significantly melting, semi-arid regions from drying to the point where millions of people are forced to flee and extreme weather conditions from a state of irreversible damage even wealthy countries’ economic powers.

If we continue to build coal-fired power plants and increase our use of gasoline and diesel vehicles, then we will literally be burning up many people’s futures. Approximately half of the carbon dioxide generated by that exhaust will remain in the atmosphere for centuries to come, and will continue to accumulate – unless we reduce output by at least 50 percent – and will raise temperatures in the lower atmosphere, the surface of the Earth and gradually the inner-regions of the ocean to levels which homo-sapiens have never experienced.

Only after a delay of decades will the full level of warming be reached, which will only be complete after centuries. Sea levels will continue to rise for centuries even without further warming of surface temperatures.

Humanity has never had to solve a long-term problem such as this, which is why our present political infrastructure is of little use for this phenomenal task. We need global domestic policies such as those of the European Union that already exist for a small portion of the international community.

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Carry out the polluter-pays principle

Burning coal is like burning people's futures

As yet, every country deals with the external effects of supplying energy in its own ways. Nearly all countries go so far as to promote global warming by reducing the prices of all or some fossil fuels for all or some portions of their populations, and they saddle succeeding generations or the general public – but not the emitters – with external effects such as health costs, air pollution or climate damage. Each year, direct or indirect subsidies account by approximation for 300 billion Euros ($450 billion) worldwide. Nearly all humans pay nothing for the emission of hazardous substances such as illness-causing diesel soot, and fainthearted European emissions trading of carbon dioxide is still far removed from an actual internalization of such external effects.

In Germany a kilowatt hour of electricity generated by a black coal-fired plant should cost 7 euro cents more with adherence to all environmental costs and 8.9 euro cents in the case of brown coal, which means that wind power, with an electricity-compensation price of 8.5 euro cents today, would already be cheaper than energy generated by brown coal. All the same, the large electricity distributors continue to speak of subsidizing renewable energy sources and most citizens parrot what they say.

Energy providers in Europe would only be acceptable choices as suppliers if their portfolios included a portion of renewable energy sources larger than the overall average. At much less than 2 percent, they lie miles beneath today’s average of 11 percent of energy coming from renewable sources.

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What would a Copenhagen Protocol a success?

First of all, when it includes binding and stronger emissions reductions for all industrialized countries by 2020 of at least 25 percent measured against the output of emissions in 1990.

Second, if the integration of countries with emerging markets – which encompass about half of all humans and in several of which the per-capita emission level is rapidly approaching our own – were to succeed along with initial reduction measures through partial financial compensation of their reduction and adaptation measures through global emissions trading amongst industrialized countries.

Third, if industrialized countries give financial support for measures to adapt to the changing climate to particularly affected developing nations.

All of the above was already covered in the declaration of the 13th United Nations Climate Change Conference on Bali.

Industrialized nations should help emerging countries adapt to climate change

But now several countries are hesitating, including the United States. Its new president is being limited by the long-term effects of erroneous politics led by a public and its representatives who are so unwilling to see the facts that the average US citizen will remain the front-runner when it comes to emissions for a long time to come.

Fourth, I would like to see a commitment to a long-term objective of emission equality, recognition of the equal rights of every human to produce emissions, and therefore much stronger emissions reductions for strong emitters such as the United States and the United Arab Emirates as a precondition for global emissions trade – adherence to the polluter-pays principle. Emissions would cost money and the market would initiate a rapid alteration to the energy supply system. We would only need a five-thousandth of the potential energy of the sun, and every country would have the bulk of its energy resources (sun, wind, water) within its borders. The conflicts connected to the appropriation of oil and gas would be things of the past.

But even should this succeed, coming generations will still have to carry the burden because we did not undertake the comparatively marginal effort of emissions reduction as compared to the cost of adaptation. This is in part because we did not initially know about the issue, and then nearly all of us suppressed it, and in part we still do not want to recognize it.

Should nothing be accomplished in Copenhagen, the possibility that in the 22nd century many cities with millions of inhabitants on weakly protected coastlines will further sink rapidly increases. Even before that occurs, millions of people will have been displaced from regions of industrialized nations distressed by water.

South is the First Victim of Global Warming

Several surveys confirm that poor countries will be the first victims of climate change, even if, being low emitters of greenhouse gases, they are less responsible.

A report published early September 2009 by Maplecroft –  a British cabinet expertise on global risks – shows that the most vulnerable countries to global warming are Somalia, Haiti, Afghanistan and Sierra Leone. Twenty-two of the 28 countries exposed to “extreme risk” are located in sub-Saharan Africa.

In the meantime, the Asian Development Bank presented in Manila the results of a conclusive report: melting of Himalayan glaciers threatens the food security and water availability of 1.6 billion inhabitants of South Asia. In New York, Rob Vos, director of the UN  Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), ruled that ” If we do not reduce significantly GHG emissions, the damage to the [economies of] poor countries as a percentage of GDP[ gross domestic product] will be up more than ten times greater than in the United States and most other developed countries ” [1] . Mr. Vos commented on the report by his department. According to the conclusions, investments should be done every year in climate change mitigation and adaptation to its effects by 1 % of world’s GDP, i.e. more than 500 billion dollars.

A few months earlier, in May 2009, the United Nations had issued a report about the international strategy on risk reduction -launched in 2000. The document operates the first synthesis of knowledge about natural disasters that have occurred between 1975 and 2008. Even if he admits the document is not exhaustive, the text nevertheless represents a unique body of knowledge.

Between 1975 and 2008, 8.866 disasters have killed 2.284.000. Regarding flooding, the risk of death increased by 13% between 1990 and 2007. The picture is not, if we dare say, equally catastrophic. The absolute number of human or economic losses increases throughout the period, but it remains proportionately stable because of demographic and global GDP growth.

But according to UN experts, the situation would deteriorate because of climate change and ecosystems degradation. The latter is a factor too often ignored. Albeit not apple to apples, ecosystems manage to cushion the impact of natural disasters. Regarding climate change, it will increase the risk of disasters. The vulnerability of populations is one of the other factors that accentuate the risks. Action by Governments (earthquake standards, etc.) becomes crucial: Japan and the Philippines suffer roughly the same number of typhoons, but they cause 17 times more deaths in the Philippines than in Japan.

Have a look on Mr. Rob Vos’ press conference here enclosed:

[1] 2009 World Economic and Social Survey: Promoting Development, Saving the Planet.

Sustainable Cities for Freedom and Environment (3)

The city and its operation

Previous articles outlined the way to configure cities in order they become sustainable or not. Sustainability depends on the city functionality itself as well – the aim of this third article.

Adam Smith in his invisible hand hypothesis stated that market optimizes the distribution, enabling better allocation of resources without public intervention. It can also operate by creating unwanted situations to market players (cases of monopoly, cartels, lack of coordination, etc.) and then worsening the social scene.

For instance, the decision to travel by private car instead of using public transport can outcome the worst case scenario. In this direction, several investigations have revealed that it would take less to London bus users – as in any other city – than motorists to move from one place to another if there were less cars. Hence the idea of Mayor Livingston of an expensive access to London downtown by private car in order to provide greater flexibility to surface and underground public transport.

Urban planning is therefore absolutely essential for coexistence and progress. Consequently, European citizens from the early nineteenth century claimed to eliminate obstacles (walls down!). They claimed broaden their cities, which became progressively constrained by sea, hills, and old walls – now absolutely unnecessary, with severe communication problems, crowding and hygiene.

In this context, it was clear to Ildefonso Cerdà when designing the Eixample (urban expansion) of Barcelona that the city should be open, cosmopolitan, outside connected by well done road and rail networks… But above all, it had to be habitable for citizens. The city would grow in small islands: city blocks chamfered, with large inner garden patios, thus uniting the best of countryside life with the advantages of the city. Even then, many Barcelonans turned these courtyards into dedicated warehouses, small factories, and even buildings.

The Cerdà’s pioneering urban planning (1860) through areas, gardens and building expansions – quite different from the internal reform of Haussmann (1852) in Paris – is our daily bread. Managements of urban municipalities generally deal with this responsibility. They have to operate with long-term vision – avoiding short-termism that under-sizes capabilities and services with serious further quicken consequences. In this direction, planning must address a number of priority issues on water, air, noise, energy, waste, health, housing, and transportation.

Cleaner Water
Human intervention in water availability has quantity and quality implications as water used in cities floods back to environment, thus closing a cycle already enforced. Thus, sewage without any treatment, returning to their natural environment, creates serious pollution of rivers and aquifers. To avoid such an issue, the European Water Charter (1968) marked a series of objectives that have been largely completed in the EU-15 – while it remains outstanding work in some of the new 27 Member States of the Union.

In addition, water consumption has to be rationalized: in most large cities, a cubic meter of clean water is less expensive than a Coke at a bar, then increasing produced waste. Consequently, it is essential to charge water waste, starting with a low prices block about 60 liters a day – subsequently changing basic allowance – and then becoming gradually more expensive.

Air
The topic is most evident in cities where sustainability is not shining for its excellence. The most valuable asset – what we breathe 24 hours a day – is consumed in very inadequate conditions. The air of London in the mid 1950s, with frequent smog waves, became suffocating. Following these situations a clean air policy arose, with the first laws, specifically British, in 1955. European Countries came after with further regulation mechanisms.

In summary, the most essential is to ensure clean air, with sensors networking and a very long series of measures that would not exceed the allowable cap, forcing the phasing out of most harmful emission sources.

Noise
Everyone agrees – starting with psychologists and psychiatrists – that noise is one of the environmental factors that affect most the quality of life. From small discomforts, more or less anecdotal, to levels of irreversible disorders in the human mind.

Definition of noise is well known:

“The sound, or set of sounds that are perceived by human beings, and that alter the acoustical medium within they normally move.”

…with the additional peculiarity that everything depends on the inevitability of impact also. Regarding the latter, a noise is obliged to be heeded, and even foreseeable at the time – as when a summer storm occurs, or when the passage of a train at a fixed time takes place, or when children voices arise from the playground in the courtyard of a school near you – and then the sound waves seem justified, and the trouble is diluted. Not at all when the roar of an uncontrolled neighbor turntable in its 50 watts comes to you, or when it deals with crying on Friday night in usually quiet streets, on these occasions everything just become the most detestable.

Among the most aggressive acoustic dealings, the continuous traffic of suburban highway (along with hundreds of miles of noise barriers) should be condemned – and what about major arteries within metropolitan area, and even in the formerly quiet streets in ancient downtowns?  In these ways, some motorists “do their best” traveling at full speed – as if they were in Silverstone. And it is certainly no less remarkable ambulances, day or night roistering circulating, carrying patients or not, whose sirens wailing penetrate your eardrums at completely unnecessary noise levels.

But most of all, among the most inconvenient and unnecessary noises, the urban cleaning must be pointed: the unpleasant scavenging machines in the vicinity of 100 dB, apart the absurd beep when they reverse or their stressful light pollution – equipments that go together with by “air gun carriers’”, top-mask and earplugs outfitted, raising dust clouds in the din with a volume of noise just about unbelievable – especially when you compare with the very human scavengers who still survive. All these issues must be fought, and there are many resources to do so, starting with the municipalities – now the main causing actors of noise.

Otherwise, cities as microcosm would become unsustainable.

Related posts:

>>Sustainable Cities for Freedom and Environment (1) – An Overview on Urban Developmental Evidences
>>Sustainable Cities for Freedom and Environment (2) – Prospects, Proposals and Local Agenda-21

Drug trafficking and imperialism

US imperial mentality in the fight against drug trafficking

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At a recent conference [1], the original and always rightly incisive Noam Chomsky, referred to US military bases installed in Colombia, with the official purpose of assisting the Government of Bogotá in the war on drugs.

Mexico's Federal Police officers escort suspects of working for a drug trafficking gang, as they are shown to the media in Mexico City

He called to consider a similar case but with different actors. Suppose, he said, that Colombia, China or any other country claim their right to establish military bases in Mexico, in order to fumigate and destroy US tobacco plantations in North Carolina or Kentucky, traditional breeders of this plant. The plan would be enhanced by blocking the production areas through the action of air and naval forces, while sending inspectors to verify the overall elimination of such plantations. All this would aim to prevent tobacco trafficking towards countries suffering its effects.

Chomsky points out that smoking has provided evidence to be more lethal than alcohol, which in turn is more harmful than the use of cocaine or heroin, and these are, in turn, more harmful than cannabis. If in addition to the number of deaths caused by harmful products inhaled by smokers, we take account of those caused to “passive” smokers – though their number is difficult to determine – it is quite sure that the overall lethal outcome of nicotiana tabacum will exceed that of the remaining drugs as a whole. It would be quite logical to pursue more actively tobacco growers than coca’s.

Clearly this assumption is not plausible in the reality of today, not only because tobacco in most countries is not a banned substance while many drugs are. However, when facing this relentless logic, what should be asked is why this happens. Why the US, who say they feel adversely affected by drugs that come from south of the Rio Grande, naturally attributed the right to deploy their armies in Colombia to combat coca growers in the area, and it is even conceivable that no other country could do likewise when its interests are affected similarly.

For Chomsky, the answer is simple and it has an unquestionable bottom: the imperial mentality that exists in the US, so deep-seated in North American minds that it pass unnoticed. Should we add here that this frame of mind also exists – on a smaller scale – in many Western countries.

However, the results so far obtained seem to justify the effort committed. The “war on drugs” has lasted more than four decades in Colombia and has intensified over the past ten years, neither the food nor drug trafficking have declined. The reasons offered by Chomsky leaves no doubts. Several studies show that well-funded prevention and treatment of drug addiction are much more effective than coercive measures used in this endless war. And the preventive or curative treatment of drug-consumers in this business-has a performance cost-effectiveness improved over 20 times to the attacks against growers supplier-side-in “chemical warfare” waged to destroy the fields of drugs.

According to Chomsky, only two scenarios would explain the current situation: Either the US leaders have been consistently fools for 40 years, or the purpose of the war on drugs is very different than what is proclaimed. If one excludes no further the hypothesis of insanity, then what may be the real reasons for this alleged war?

Inside the US two main facts are obvious: the cleaning of the socially less useful (which has led the US into the world’s first place on top of prison population rate) and, as with the “war on terror”, dependence and subjugation of a population terrorized by the danger of drugs, to stop showing its angry opposition to economic policies that have led to the largest social imbalance that the US has ever suffered.

Meanwhile, abroad, the war on drugs is a way of hiding in Colombia – and other countries –some of the most iniquitous antisubversive operations. Colombia is the second country in the world (after Sudan) with more population driven out their homes, while local oligarchies and multinationals occupy the land abandoned by farmers and transform them into mining, agro-industrial production, intensive livestock or infrastructure for industry – whose benefits hardly benefit to concerned populations.

Now it’s time to ask whether Obama will follow the winding road – yet partly covered by his predecessors but in opposition to which he has not revealed much indignation as he showed with e.g. Guantanamo – or on the contrary, he has enough support, resources and intentions to leave the swamped problem that Chomsky clearly presents and whose resolution is difficult and complex, since it not only depends on the White House decisions, although they can point the beginning of a new path.

[1] Noam Chomsky, Militarizing Latin America. In chomsky.info. August 30, 2009

A pedagogy on carbon tax

Carbon tax on the way back to Welfare Economics

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>> Click here to translate this page to French

Designing a tax for everything that contaminates incites people to preserve environment, the atmosphere in particular, which is in serious danger. The idea is to penalize polluting energy in transport, housing and personal consumption. Every time we consume less fuel but this is not enough to achieve the goals set at the last conference on climate change: hence the idea to programme a compulsory tax (to be paid per tonne of fossil fuel issued). This in order that the world decrease to half the emissions of greenhouse gas (2050) and limit Earth warming to 2 degrees – which causes climate change.

Global warming due to greenhouse gases from the combustion of carbon dioxide is 49,000 million tons of CO2 emissions. Enough is enough, this must be punishable. Its effects could lead to an overall increase of 3% of the temperature within approximately 100 years. The cost of global warming is estimated at 5,500,000 million (Nicholas Stern) [1]. While the concept of a tax on CO2 emissions comes from Arthur Pigou (Economics of Welfare) [2] who, in 1920, first established the polluter pays principle.

Now …

• Should we tax the product itself or the energy consumed?
• What about taxing imported products?
• How do we avoid the risks of inequality?
• What can we do with the tax revenue?

The solutions adopted by each country are different.
France, with about 50,000 million of environmental taxation laid up, shows a certain delay. The structure of French environmental taxation is so unwise by voluntarism emphasis that it will not generate benefits in the sense of net contribution or revenue – but only more taxes on water, on garbage, on the consumption of hydrocarbons (TIPP) which are not reversed in any improvements (infrastructure, citizen responsibilization); on the contrary, it is the umpteenth patch covering the phenomenal public deficit hole. The pedagogy turns into a demagogic fatalistic verbiage as to mislead the common man – because it ignores the virtues of consensus that in all the surrounding countries is originated in the parliamentary debate, which is where popular sovereignty revives up and where such taxation should be decided, not in the halls of the presidential palace – a very usual symptom in the French Republic whose skin politicians refuse to change. These rates represent 3% of GDP … thrown away. Unless considering France as the cleanest country in Europe thanks to its huge nuclear program, which on the contrary converts this country in less safe by the obvious potential for nuclear incidents due to its atomic central park and may involve in quantity of radioactive wastes concerned – the highest per capita in the world. The rhetoric continues, forward flight, too. The only positive point is that hydroelectricity accounts for 93% of energy resources … with the aggravated disadvantage that the driving force’s the nuclear cell. Who do we kidding? If the decrease in CO2 emissions must involve the breakneck growth of the nuclear beast, then where do we go? Stripped from one mouth to feed another.

Moreover, the tax on CO2 emissions in a country is not really quantifiable to impact CO2 emissions at the global level. Global policies are needed to internalize environmental costs and act on the behaviour of firms and households. That is the healthier principle. France is wrong in the way of carrying it out: confusion over the extent rate itself (cheerfully going from 20 to 32 for up to 100 euros / TN emitted by 2030, then left who can say where?) over the exemptions, over its operation. The increased cost of living is set: estimated at 10% the additional costs of household heating in French homes by 2010, from 5 to 10 cts. for a liter of fuel at the pump now. Another consequence is that the tax, as is, will ruin the remaining local industry (current bleeding is the largest ever seen in France) and as usual,  only a few (large) groups will afford to face such additional costs in the midst of an industrial desert. Who will invest in a country that overtaxes 100 euros each emitted CO2 TN? As for the wicked 35h law, nor study or reflection has been implemented and no effort tryed to coordinate with other European countries. The devil is in the details, French say …

The topic of compensation is often talked about, but what about inequality between consumers? What to do with the € 8,000 million that the government is supposed to enter through the concept (e.g. fatten the coffers of the ministry of finance)?

Swedish pedagogy against French demagogy
Other countries as Sweden have also established a carbon tax, even more substantial, but with a very different modus operandi: e.g. Swedish tax implies a graduated scale for companies that invest more in technological innovation to improve production processes in CO2 emission – now that is pedagogy. It’s bad times in terms of economic crisis situation but action is credible in Sweden and demagogic in France where nobody knows whether the tax will be redistributed or yet another ‘neutral’ tax – that is, outside of Pigouvian incitement, which has the favour of Prime Minister Fillon.
Because the environment policy can not be summarized to raise the level of taxation or implementing new taxes, unless you’re old tricks again and increase unemployment and public debt. Two years back here it was the bonus / malus tax on car CO2 emissions (an onerous  marketing device that ruined much of the automotive industry, with a fall of 40% of French production, forcing car manufacturers to abandon the profitable manufacture of sedans to engage in small cars’ on which the profit margin is zero or nearly zero), last year was the tax on diapers for newborns turn, this year it is the time of a tax on CO2 emissions … a joke (or better yet, a shortsighted policy).
The temptation to tax the super profits of the oil industry (Ségolène Royal) would only have negative repercussions in the pocket of the consumers. Better a tax that changes that behaviour and not simply going to fatten the coffers of the state and its lifestyle. Report and well communicate with citizen, having a little patience not changing everything at a stroke or by decree.
Taxation reforms are essential throughout our countries. We talk about tax incentive and not subsidies e.g. car industries so that they manufacture a kind of cars that they would have made anyway. Let’s face green taxes; it is just and necessary, but mostly to help us getting out from the unending virtual crisis of rampant capitalism, far from the real economy. No green custom duties at European borders, a trend advocated by some, in their eagerness, to lead us into a new protectionism; but rather concentrating on comprehensive policies, at least in Europe, better globally. It is useless to establish national policies not coordinated with the rest of countries, giving way to protectionist policies more or less latent: have a look on the global trade drop of 12%, if you want to add more crisis to crisis just add the perversion of protectionism to all the difficulties we face today. The environment is a global public good. To be honest we do not know how to deal with externalities steadily i.e. when China or Brazil pollute, they do not so in their respective territories only but in the entire world. Enforcing tariffs however is theoretically a nice building, but in practice it is just about regression. Also do not forget that China’s censure is unfair: the PRC is making genuine efforts to drastically reduce pollution in its industries – and it still does not occur in most of developed countries.

One of the biggest questions is to identify what the US attitude will be. So far the US had no concern on the Kyoto Protocol; the position is changing but it all depends on the type of changes that comes about there. Scenarios abroad are in my opinion: the role of the G20, the Doha WTO round re-launch and the climate meeting in Copenhagen. All three turn around the same concern: the need for global economic governance to meet challenges.

Pedagogy missing in the US and UK.
The increasing size of speculative capital flows, mainly in US and UK, is the pending business. I mean speculative capitals and hot money outflows are bigger now than a year ago – in the worst moment of financial-mortgage crisis. Hot money is tossed into the emerging economies as the first symptom relief crops up. Thus, the central bank of China is increasingly doomed to buy huge reserves to support a sick dollar (thus some $ 70,000 million per month, are beyond the circuit of productive investments in order to prevent the US currency to collapse again), deflecting precisely investment in productive economy. That is, in essence, we have not yet altered the global imbalances, and even we are somewhat higher than before the crisis. The issue of executive bonuses and allowances is less significant than the required dismantling of the opacity in the banking investment -something impossible in the most key European financial center, the City of London, since the future PM Cameron opposes to it. This, in US terms, is yet unimaginable. So far the best indicators of the City and NY – queues at the best restaurants – behave well as table reservations vary from 2 to 3 months … bonuses, windfalls, luxury cars, stratospheric contracts are just around the corner again. To pin a button: flows exchanged in the derivatives markets reached a record of vertigo – almost 10 times world’s GDP. So how can David control Goliath?

To be continued …

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[1]  The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change is a report on the impact of climate change and global warming on the world economy. Written by economist Sir Nicholas Stern, commissioned by the UK government, the report was published in October 2006. The report represents a milestone by becoming the first government report commissioned by an economist rather than a climatologist.

[2] Arthur Pigou is considered the founder of welfare economics and the main precursor of the environmental movement to make the distinction between social and private marginal expenses and advocate for state intervention through subsidies and taxes to correct market failures and internalize externalities. Welfare Economics is his most emblematic book.

Sustainable Cities for Freedom and Environment (2)

Prospects, Proposals and Local Agenda-21

The first part of the analysis did consider the cities’ future –an analysis on ancient and current cities in a world becoming increasingly overpopulated.

This time we look after the portfolio of proposals on sustainable ages about the so-called Local Agenda 21. I would stress the importance of the issue, its impact on the social debate: while the 19th century witnessed social debate focused on class struggle, the latter part of the 20th century has been polarized on the ecological risks –which are no longer tied to a specific place of origin but their nature, pose a threat to all forms of life on the planet. That was precisely the widespread thesis at Stockholm-72 by Barbara Ward and Rene Dubos in their book ”Only One Earth”. With themes already raised earlier, in 1972, by Philippe Saint Marc in his unforgettable book “Socialisation de la nature” (Socialization of Nature, now exhausted, even in French).

In other words, the ecological risks are above classes, to the point that, even sarcastic tone has been said that “poverty is hierarchic, while smog is democratic”. The ultimate consequence lays on the social dynamics of ecological threats that has overcome the traditional debates on income or social position – fighting the global warming, the Kyoto Protocol and the future Copenhagen Protocol.

In 1993 the Expert Group on the Urban Environment and the European Commission launched the first phase of the Sustainable Cities Project for the period 1993-1996, in order to (1) contribute to further reflection on sustainability, (2) encourage a wide exchange experiences and (3) circulate best practices of local sustainability. In the long term, the idea of making recommendations on local and regional issues of Member States and the European Union itself. This, in line with what was requested in 1991 at a resolution of the Council of Ministers of the EC.

Once constituted, the EGUE worked over three years in developing a European Sustainable Cities Report, with the help of Euronet, who played the role of scientific and technical secretariat. The EGUE was organized in a number of specialized committees on:

• Social integration
• Mobility and urban access
• Planning and public spaces
• Dissemination (i.e. Distribution of projects between the public)
• Sustainable Social Systems
• Leisure, tourism and environment quality
• Technical management of cities
• Holistic urban management
• Urban Regeneration (Rehabilitation of neighborhoods and housing)

With so many nuances in plain view, the Report group focused on the relationship between institutional and environmental aspects in order to estimate the chances of local governments. Somewhat transcendent, against the attitude of state or semi-federal lands, as German Länder, Spanish Autonomous Communities and most of regional governments that hold so much power and sometimes behave as new centralist outbreaks. These bodies take up often resources more than anything needed by cities for multitasking – that anyone but they must assume, mostly in extremis.

The above circumstances require a thorough review of public policies to make them less authoritarian, rational and supportive, bearing that as a result of the ecosystems theory, the city is a complex whole, characterized by continuous change and development processes. In this approach, aspects such as energy consumption, waste generation, traffic and public transport are relevant.

But the EU obviously was not the only to deal with the issue and some experiences deserve to be stressed by far. Beginning with 1987, when eleven European cities (that number has grown to fifty so far) founded the Healthy Cities Programme for the World Health Organization OMS/WHO, intended for improving health conditions and interactive environment.

Furthermore in 1990, the United Nations Centre for Human Settlements – Habitat (UNCHS), started its own program of sustainable cities, aiming to provide developing countries with better systems for planning and environmental management.

Also in 1990, representatives from more than 200 local authorities around the world founded the International Council of Initiatives on Local Environment (ICLEI), promoting sustainable future, while counting with the sponsorship of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The ICLEI, which is based on the UN HQ in New York, is a local network for exchanging experiences, disseminating best examples of environmental do. ICLEI also promotes the Model Communities Program of Local Agenda 21 – a matter under discussion shortly below.

In August 1991, 130 cities have signed the Toronto Declaration on World Cities and Environment committed to develop sustainable development plans –incidentally, Canada, with Toronto and Montreal, is one of the most active countries on the issue at hand.

Meanwhile, in May 1992, 45 cities participate in the World Urban Forum – relied to the United Nations Conference on Environment, signed the Commitment of Curitiba (Brazil) in defense of sustainable urban development. A document outlining the guidelines for action to follow when developing plans for sustainable development, always in collaboration with authorities and citizens.

Likewise, the scheme of Urban Management UNDP (United Nations Development based in Nairobi) and the World Bank (1993) should be mentioned.

To complete the list of proposals made on sustainable cities, a mention is necessary conc. the Urban Program OECD (1994), aimed to improve knowledge on ecosystems in urban areas, evaluate examples of good work, and measure the effectiveness of local authorities policies and other public institutions, private or volunteer at various levels of government. Within the Urban Program, the Ecological Cities Project deserves specific mention in this analysis (will shape a further article).

In the same line of initiatives for sustainable cities, the EU Member States committed themselves at the Lisbon European Council in June 1992 to develop national plans of implementation of Local Agenda 21. An action plan born in the United Nations Conference on Environment held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 (Earth Summit) and later developed at European level in the Aalborg Charter where the fundamental notes of the process of Local Agenda 21 were adopted:

• Sustainability, as an idea of preservation of natural capital. This requires that the consumption of natural resources, water and renewable energy does not exceed the capacity of natural systems to replenish them – and the speed at which we consume nonrenewable resources do not exceed the rate of replacement by sustainable renewable resources. Environmental sustainability also means that the rate of emitted pollutants does not go beyond the regeneration capacity of air, water and soil on which they work. Environmental sustainability also means the maintenance of biodiversity, public health and air quality, water and soil at levels sufficient to sustain human life and welfare, as well as the flora and fauna.
• Working within ecosystems, with regards to their capacity, and always linking the systems created by humans with natural ecosystems, and taking them as management models.
• Citizen participation. Sustainable development means making important decisions between conflicting objectives and major changes in the way of life of communities and therefore can not be imposed from above.

The collaboration of citizens is a direct consequence of the principles of partnership and shared responsibility in terms of:

• Acceptance and social support to the Plan.
• Assumption of commitments and responsibilities on the part of society.
• Acceptance of certain actions and proceedings which entail some sacrifice in the population, it was an overall context would be difficult to raise and take politically.

Anyhow, the impact of Local Agenda 21 has not reached its potential, which is enormous. In a way, because the municipalities fear citizens who might assume progressive grasp on cities – that is, jeopardizing hierarchies.

Sustainable Cities for Freedom and Environment (1)

An Overview on Urban Developmental Evidences

Matters of environment and nature conservation are to be considered when planning and developing construction projects.

The policy approach on sustainable cities is essential because in the process of urban development there can be no operations as often happened in the past, improvised, or at the mercy of powerful real estate groups, without taking into account the most basic in terms of sustainability. Then there is the new context, revealing that in 2008 more than half of the 6,700 million human beings, in a trend of (still) population growth living in cities, so that the quality of life for most inhabitants of the earth depends on whether or not those cities are sustainable. Moreover, in 2050 there will be 9,000 million inhabitants in the planet – 70 percent of them will be urban.

There is no civilization without cities, because since humans became sedentary in the Neolithic, human settlements began to better provide satisfaction to the needs of their communities. And over time, these early settlements became towns, centers of attraction and stimulus for social mobilization as well as for commercial exchange of ideas, and personal relationships. Ultimately, as stated by Marsilio Ficino in the fifteenth century, the city is not made only of stone but also and above all, human beings organized to co-exist indefinitely.

In this direction, the city is “the place of a particular human group,” according to historian Marc Bloch. As the philosopher Claude Lefort, in an essay on urban civilization in Europe, explained well how, at the end of the Middle Ages – then next to coming into the Renaissance – European cities formed broad areas of trade and freedom.

On that path slowly and around the birth of the market, an emerging social class, the bourgeoisie was creating a new order in Europe that would eventually undermine the feudal power: serfs emancipating from the masters found protection in urban habitat increasingly free. The expression of this change is summarized by Max Weber, “town air makes free.”

That freedom of the city, as Lefort writes, means the dissolution of personal dependence ties of feudalism, and the possibility, therefore, to change one’s condition: promoting work, the capacity of initiative, education and other opportunities. This direction (urban development as a critical element of progress in Europe) explains the significant leap forward, which the Renaissance involved for a great number of issues.

The improvement of former European cities did contrast with what happened elsewhere, e.g. Chinese cities, which became the nucleus of the bureaucracy and the mandarin feudal organization, which of course did not prevent the Celestial Empire becoming the greatest world power for centuries – something often ignored by the prevailing Euro centrism. But the gaps above mentioned prevented China from setting up a large middle class and therefore they avoided the necessary industrial revolution to operate there in the eighteenth century.

From an everyday approach, the city can be qualified as a place to live, grow, work, study and live together in society; thus – according to Roberto Camagni – becoming significant sets, autonomous socio-economic entities. In this regard, management and improvement of quality of life for residents requires a specific spatial planning; on vital issues such as infrastructure, urban planning, public transport, landfill management, solid waste collection and energy management , CO2 emissions, and always transcendental subject of the marginalization of certain social groups.

Prevention through environmental impact assessment (EIA)

In the direction above pointed, the sprawl of cities tends to set conurbations (Giddens dixit) or megalopolis, as happened in the United States firstly with San-San (San Francisco / San Diego), Chipitts (Chicago / Pittsburgh) or BosWash ( Boston / Washington). On the other hand, the provision of advanced services, the concentration of scientific and technical qualifications, and expertise of the workforce and the existence of large consumer markets as well, have a decisive influence on the emergence of new international centers (international hubs) that operate on a continental scale and in some cases even worldwide. Providing distinction between knowledge hubs (knowledgehubs), capital cities (established capitals), or new capitals (re-invented capitals).

From the viewpoint of conceptual development, urban sustainability is based on the definition, widely accepted that it was first built in the Brundtland Report, World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987:

Sustainable development is one that meets current needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own problems.

Another complementary definition, offered by the IUCN – World Conservation Union (Environment Program of United Nations and World Wide Fund for Nature, 1991) pointed that:

Sustainable development means improving the quality of life with respect to the limits of ecosystems.

More specifically, sustainability involves a number of essential criteria:

• There is no infinite growth with finite resources: it is necessary to acknowledge limits to the expansion in material terms, in order to prevent the destruction of ecosystems and the overall deterioration of the biosphere.

• In production, you have to incorporate such damages to the biosphere as costs, treating, at business and government as particularly sensitive part of the profit and loss account, or budgets, respectively.

• It requires the systematic use of environmental impact assessment (EIA), for reasons that can be summarized by “prevention is better than cure”.

• It is important that government admin and private organizations have their respective environmental budgets, where evaluate annually the ecological balance – to assess whether or not they are generating natural capital reductions.

• The development model must be ecological, permeating all sectoral intervals as patterns of respect for nature.

Biblio:

Marc Bloch, La Société féodale (Feudal Society), Albin Michel, Paris, 1998.

Claude Lefort, L’Invention démocratique (The Democratic Invention), Paris, Fayard, 1981.

Claude Lefort, Europe as an urban civilization, Revue ‘Esprit’, Paris, 2004

Max Weber, General Economic History, Cosimo, New York, 1986

Roberto Camagni, Economia Urbana, Barcelona, 2005

The Way Forward at Copenhagen

Countdown to Copenhagen: The global conference on climate change will take place from December 7 to 18 in Denmark. At 100 days of its conclusion, pessimism prevails.

Ban Ki-moon at the ice floe in Svalbard Islands, Norway

Countdown appears critical now: the days between now and December 18, the day of the possible conclusion of a global agreement to fight against global warming. Delegates from 192 countries will meet in Copenhagen under the auspices of the UN. Will they find the resources to overcome their differences? While part of the future of the twenty-first century will be played in the Danish capital, pessimism prevails for now, here’s why.

The ice warming is more important than predicted. According to a WWF report, released September 2, the Arctic is warming twice faster than the Earth as a whole, which could lead to a rise in sea levels of 1.20 m by 2100, more than was expected so far by scientists. And the WWF prevents that “the flooding of coastal areas due to melting ice will affect more than one quarter of the world population.” With the risk that the flow of climate refugees will become an unmanageable threat for the planet.

The Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon launches a cry of alarm. Faced with the increasing dangers, the Secretary General of UN, Ban Ki-moon has decided to shake the conscience by going in early September to the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard, 1 200 km far from the North Pole. « The Arctic is like a canary in a coal mine: is an alarm for the global climate. I will say in Copenhagen to world leaders they must act before it’s too late », he said on site. And, back from Svalbard, he added, gravely: « The world is rushing toward the abyss. »

Negotiators are worried. Thus, Pierre Radanne, energy consultant and one of the negotiators in Copenhagen said in Terra Eco « By three months to the summit we’re at a deadlock. » This remark is confirmed by Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): «While early this year the G8 leaders had agreed on the objective of maintaining the warming to 2°C, there is no sign of progress or significant progress in the negotiations towards Copenhagen. »

Mobilizing the civil society. In the blogosphere some interesting initiatives as Mediators at COP15 – finding new ways, propose suitable action plans. In France, 11 NGOs (such as Greenpeace, WWF and CRS) have decided to intensify their action. Their petition “We do not negotiate with the climate, we act“, has surpassed the 145 000 signatures. The Way Forward at Copenhagen.

Related Posts:

Climate Change: Preparing a New Protocol (I)
Climate Change: Expectations for the New Protocol (II)
Climate Change: Upcoming meetings (III)

Economics in the nude

Unempirical hypothesis in economic theory are subverting efforts to work out environmental threats

Economy stark naked

The pattern maker fathers of neoclassical economics –the current core assumption of the global market system–  were supposed to transform their scope into a scientific discipline. But what is not commonly acknowledged is that these now celebrated economists  –Jevons, Walras, Edgeworth and Pareto–  developed their hypothesis by adjusting equations from the 19th century physics that finally became outdated. Unluckily, it is clear that neoclassical economics has also become obsolete. The assumption is based on unscientific statements that are delaying the implementation of workable economic solutions for global warming and other worrisome environmental threats.

The physical theory that the creators of neoclassical economics used as a pattern was formulated in reply to the inability of Newtonian physics to rationalize the experiences of heat, light and electricity. In 1847 German physicist Hermann von Helmholtz framed the conservation of energy rule and assumed the existence of a field of conserved energy that fills all space and merges these observable facts. Later in the century James Maxwell, Ludwig Boltzmann and other physicists developed better explanations for electromagnetism and thermodynamics, but meanwhile, the economists had borrowed and changed Helmholtz’s equations.

The approach that economists employed was effortless and illogical—they replaced economic variables with physical ones. Convenience utility (a measure of economic well-being) took the place of energy; the sum of utility and expenditure replaced potential and kinetic energy. Many eminent scientists warned the economists that there was definitely no basis for making these swaps. But the economists ignored such analysis and carry on claiming that they had transformed their line of work into a strictly mathematical scientific discipline.

Weirdly, the genesis of neoclassical economics in mid-19th century physics was elapsed. Successive generations of conventional economists admitted the assertion that this hypothesis was scientific. These peculiar occurrences make clear why the mathematical theories used by conventional economists are built on the following unscientific assumptions:

• The market structure is a closed circular flow between production and consumption, with no inputs or outputs.

• Natural resources are present in a domain that is separate and distinct from a closed market system, and the economic value of these resources is determined barely by the dynamics that operate within this system.

• The cost of damages to the external natural environment by economic activities must be treated as positioned outer the closed market system or as costs that cannot be built-in in the pricing mechanisms that operate within the system.

• The external resources of nature are largely boundless, and those that are not can be replaced by other resources or by technologies that diminish the exploitation of the limited resources or that depend on other resources.

• There is no biophysical limit to the expansion of market systems.

If the environment preservation crisis did not be there, the fact that neoclassical economic theory grants a consistent base for running economic activities in market systems could be considered as adequate justification for its common purpose. But since the crisis does exist, this speculation can no longer be considered as useful even in pragmatic or utilitarian terms for the reason that it fails to meet what must now be regarded as a deep-seated prerequisite of any economic theory  –the point to which this theory permits economic activities to be harmonized in environmentally responsible conducts on a global extent. Because neoclassical economics does not even recognize the costs of environmental harms and the limits to economic growth, it represents one of the utmost obstacles to fight climate change and other threats to the planet. It is imperative that economists work out new theories that will take all the concepts and realities of our global system into account.

A few number of economists over the past two decades, including such top personalities as Kenneth J. Arrow, have expressed doubts about the effectiveness of neoclassical economic hypothesis. However, the most express challenges to obvious postulations in this theory have been made by the game theorists. Such as, these academics have challenged the supposition that economic actors are absolutely rational, act upon fixed decision-making rules and are unable of making dreadful choices. In conservative neoclassical economic theory, the natural laws of economics supposedly find out the best possible outcome of a cost-effective process and economic actors lack of all evident human characteristics. This theory presupposes as well that the sphere of economy is established and static and that economic actors are completely rational entities who do not talk back. When getting through the box of human bias, the game logicians have been obliged to conjecture a growing number of unplanned variables to justify the decision-making of individual economic actors. And this enlightens why the history of game theory is marked by a recurrent regression into the incredible complexities of language and culture. As the economist R. Sugden states it [1]:

“There was a time, not long ago, when the foundations of rational-choice theory appeared firm, and when the job of the economic theorist seemed to be one of drawing out the often complex implications of a fairly simple and uncontroversial system of axioms. But it is increasingly becoming clear that these foundations are less secure than we thought, and that they need to be examined and perhaps rebuilt. Economic theorists may have to become as much philosophers as mathematicians.”

This explains why the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) failed to protect the climate system, why the Convention on Biological Diversity (1992) did not even begin to reduce losses in biodiversity, and why the U.N. Convention to Combat Desertification (1994) did not slow, much less, reverse this process. However,   the cooperation of the most part of economists and environmental scientists  –that the world needs without delay–  may occur when both recognize the unique opportunity they have to look after the existence of current mankind and the future existence of its descendents by resolving the crisis in the global environment.

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[1] Robert Sugden, “Rational Choice: A Survey of Contributions from Economics and Philosophy,” Economic Journal 101:4 July, 1991, p. 783.

Climate Change: Upcoming meetings (III)

Bonn Climate Change Talks – August 2009
AWG-KP and AWG-LCA informal consultations
10-14 August 2009 Bonn, Germany

In August, Parties will continue negotiations on the draft text of an effective and ambitious international climate change deal, to be clinched in Copenhagen December. The one week meeting of the AWG-KP and AWG-LCA, to be held at the Maritim in Bonn from 10 to 14 August, will be of an informal nature.

The informal plenary sessions will be open to the media, and will also be webcast. Whilst no special media facilities will be provided and no press conferences will take place on site, the UNFCCC plans to hold a closing press conference on Friday, 14 August in Bonn at the UN’s “Langer Eugen” building, Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10. The briefing is scheduled to take place in the lunch break of the final day, shortly after the the morning plenary has finished (approx. 13:15). The UNFCCC press briefing will be followed by briefings of Parties and NGOs. All briefings at the Langer Eugen will be webcast and journalists will be able to phone in from abroad to ask questions.

Bangkok Climate Change Negotiations 2009
Ninth session of the AWG-KP and seventh session of the AWG-LCA
28 September – 9 October 2009  Bangkok, Thailand

Barcelona Climate Change Negotiations
Resumed Seventh session of the AWG-LCA and resumed Ninth session of the AWG-KP
02 Nov – 06 Nov 2009  Barcelona, Spain

Full media facilities

United Nations Climate Change Conference – Copenhagen 2009
Conference of the Parties (COP), Fifteenth session and Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP), Fifth session and sessions of the Subsidiary Bodies
07 – 18 Dec 2009 Copenhagen, Denmark

Logistical and other useful information is available on the Danish host country website

UNFCCC Media Calendar – Milestones to Copenhagen (76 kB)

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Have a look at       Climate Change: Preparing a New Protocol (I) & 
Have a lo k a tooo Climate Change: Expectations for the New Protocol (II)

Climate Change: Expectations for the New Protocol (& II)

In the first part we pointed the issues concerning the new Copenhagen protocol -to replace Kyoto- once it will expire in 2012.

Regarding the new negotiating text in the Danish capital, however, the question is: Will be the results of the Copenhagen meeting next December as much impact as expected?

Everything depends on confirmation of the aspirations of the EU and what the ultimately commitments that the U.S. and the large emerging economies assume. Equally critical will be what happens with the planned protocol on Reducing Emissions by Deforestation and Forest Degradation. This protocol is intended to finance a number of countries to prevent logging and burning of tropical rain forests. Both for what it implies loss of biodiversity and natural resources, and the fact that the fires are so extensive that cause 20 percent of emissions of total greenhouse gases on the planet.

As mentioned above, US and China have make a move on the Copenhagen chessboard, as they are responsible for more than half of the problem. And that requires from both governments -even if they come with some delay- a conciliation of their interests with the general interests of the world -bearing in mind that without their contribution, nothing is possible.

Regarding to the environment in which the Copenhagen conference has to fit, Anthony Giddens [1] points in his recent book, The Politics of Climate Change, the new green development will require innovative approaches in policies. This will be easier if you come to understand that people change their spendthrift consumer habits more easily if a better future is offered to them -rather than exhibiting an alarmist, Dantesque panorama, as oftenly many old and young greeners, seem to take delight when they reveal their apocalyptic predictions.

In other words -according to the so-called Giddens paradox-, abstract and distant considerations about a large crisis -even if this one is dramatic- do not lead to bring on real changes in attitudes and behaviors. Unlike what happened with the optimistic slogan “Yes we can!” during the former Barak Obama’s campaign, that inspired the change to a better way of life, far more effective evocations of awful cataclysms.

Another specialist of that question, David MacKay, seems much concerned by the new protocol because of the excessive enthusiasm on alternative energies in view of the decarbonization of the economy. Taking the example of the United Kingdom, MacKay suggests that if one intends to supply alternative energies in excess, the entire country would be covered with wind turbines, although the wind does not blow everywhere! And finally one could not get more than 10 percent of the total energy demand. And if you seed the entire useful British farmland in order to obtain energy, not much would be achieved: the resulting bio fuels would not even cover 12 percent of energy needs. Preaching for nuclear energy from these premises is therefore, a step that some want to overcome cheerfully.

Faced to a so huge challenge, the key issue is to transform the current energy system in order to make it sustainable. With a significant increase in renewable energy, but at the same time improving efficiency in the generation and consumption, and without demonizing the nuclear -whose waste and stockings are obviously harmful- it is mandatory to establish a long term plan for its gradual but definitive revocation.  The latter, contrary to what so often is done from official positions -as it happened in the greener times of Germany, Sweden, Spain and Italy.

In all these respects, the EU Commissioner for Environment Stavros Dimas,  said in Bonn on 4 April, the Copenhagen summit will be the “last chance to fight climate change and while preventing to reach extremely hazardous levels, virtually irreversible.” And, in order to face up these difficulties with some time in advance, the Council of Environment Ministers of the EU adopted a directive in April 2009 stating a package of measures summarized in the 20-20-20 percent plan. That is, reaching 20 percent of energy consumption through renewable energies, improving by 20 per cent energy efficiency and cut another 20 in CO2 emissions.

The target of 20 on renewable energy could be achieved by setting binding targets (from 10 per cent for Malta to 49 per cent for Sweden) and with the fulfillment that at least 10 percent of transport fuel should be of bio fuel’s, hydrogen, green electricity, etc. In terms of efficiency and energy savings, the possibilities are immense, and that could be achieved with the current electricity supply to reach a GDP 30 percent lower than now. Just eradicating the abuses and misuses in public and private lighting, requiring better building insulation -in older as in recent buildings- and replace the most outdated equipment that run on electricity today. For that purpose, an ad hoc “trialogue” should be developed with the power generating companies and consumers.

Furthermore, in line of reducting the impact of fossil fuels, we must promote the use of technologies of capture and geological storage of carbon, in order to withdraw from the atmosphere most of the emissions from industry and the electricity generation. Additionally, the industrial CO2 emissions auctions are urged to become more expensive, with a gradual appreciation of them.

The EU directive above mentioned should be enforced as national law in all EU countries, within the next 18 months following the adoption. And the final decisions will be set depending on what ultimately happens in Copenhagen, where it is expected that all countries assume their obligations -avoiding  the unscrupulous opportunism and other fallacious arguments used so far.

To put it briefly, it is necessary to recognize once again that we all live in one world and that the atmosphere has no boundaries.

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[1] Sir Anthony Giddens is the former director of the London School of Economics, and an eminent sociologist, famous for having stated the Third Way -a bit old fashioned concept now.

Climate Change: Preparing a New Protocol (I)

The ongoing negotiations for a process on tackling global warming
as a result of emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs).
A process that is affecting extremely the planet’s ecosystems.

The Copenhagen Conference will number 15 of the UNFCCC meetings -the Contracting Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC, signed in Rio de Janeiro during the Earth Summit in June 1992. And it is the result of the plenary sessions, as agreed at the 14th UNFCCC meeting in Bali in December 2007. The Conference will be held in Copenhagen, Denmark and will last two weeks from 7 December to 18 December 2009.

The first round of negotiations this year took place in Bonn, 29 March-8 April. The second meeting took place in Bonn, 1-12 June. Three further sessions will be held prior to Copenhagen: 10-14 August in Bonn (informal meeting); 28 September-9 October in Bangkok and 2-6 November in Barcelona.

As a major contribution to policy decision making at the conferences mentioned above -as well as those to come- the task done by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has great importance. The IPCC is based in Geneva and it has been created by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program. It should be noted that in 2007 the IPCC received the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore, former U.S. Vice President.

One thing is clear: the Climate Change Conference is a major event, which will lead to the Protocol of Copenhagen (the first time it was officially named as such in May 2009) to combat global warming . The meeting will be attended by representatives of 170 countries, along with members of NGOs, the media and several other participants; it will be joined by some 8,000 people.

As background to the Copenhagen Conference, and despite their large deviations on forecasts of world food in the 1970s, when severe famines predicted failed to happen however -thanks to Norman Borlaug’s “Green Revolution”- it comes to my mind a comment from demographer Paul Ehrlich, the father of “The Population Bomb“ (1968): Genetically, we have barely evolved since the days of Aristotle. We do not have the fate of the fruit fly, which in a matter of weeks is able to “evolve” and develop resistance to DDT. Ten generations of homo sapiens take 200 years to die out. Cultural change is much faster and unpredictable.

Hope is the last to be lost, but I have serious doubts … The truth is this: we have been dreadful planet administrators to date. We have altered ecosystems and the atmosphere to the point of endangering the conditions that make Earth habitable. We came to create a smaller version of the planet in the desert of Arizona, Biosphere 2, and we saw what happened: the experiment ended in a complete fiasco. Meanwhile, we have overpopulated the Earth and have overexploited natural resources. Now we are altering the climate, and though we have scientific evidence and assume that we are intelligent, we have done virtually nothing to change our behavior.

But we will see that, once again, hope is not lost and the hope is Copenhagen. Because the Danish capital should be the scene where an agreement must be reached to clarify, among others, the level of ambition in the global fight against climate change. To do this, all countries should agree global reduction targets on a long-term basis. The European Union has already put its proposal and considers that global emissions of greenhouse gases must be reduced by 50 percent in 2050 compared to the levels in 1990. Achieving these goals will require substantial effort on the part of developed countries, but these may not reduce alone emissions enough. If industrialized countries are to maintain leadership in the fight against climate change, emerging countries will also develop projects according to their capacities and circumstances, as well -especially the large economies as China and India.

It’s worth noting the importance of innovative financing instruments that are being analyzed, and that must be structured according to existing mechanisms, such as the newly created Climate Investment Fund at the World Bank. Also initiatives to access to new technologies need to be implemented , according to the code of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) whose statutes were approved by 25 countries -of a total of 125 high level representatives.

The initial approach of the Copenhagen Conference is done today, the second and final issue of this paper refers to the probable issues of success.

La Humanidad Invisible: Un mundo sin nosotros

¿Qué pasaría si un asteroide golpeara la Tierra y la humanidad dejara repentinamente de existir? ¿Cómo sobreviviría o prosperaría la Tierra sin nosotros?

El bullicio humano es como huellas en la arena. Todo lo que hacemos deja una huella –  se trate de preparar una taza de té, encender el botón de la luz, o usar un ordenador. Todas estas tareas aparentemente ordinarias y poco excitantes requieren energía, que a menudo añade más gases de efecto invernadero a la atmósfera al tiempo que nuestros residuos aumentan.  A medida que la población humana crece, la Tierra lucha por soportar nuestro peso.

Al ritmo de la Tierra, os invito a echar un vistazo al website  – y al libro –  de Alan Weisman The World Without Us (Un mundo sin nosotros) e imaginar así cómo los entornos natural y urbano se verían modificados el el supuesto de que desapareciéramos.

Es probable que la especie humana no desaparezca tan pronto, pero hay maneras de hacernos ya cada día más invisibles. Ahí está el caso de Colin Beavan, quien se llama a sí mismo el hombre sin impacto (No Impact Man). Pasó un año entero tratando no sólo de reducir su impacto ambiental, sino de borrarlo por completo. Como se aprecia en el interesante vídeo – que además es fráncamente divertido:

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Narcotráfico e imperialismo

La mentalidad imperial norteamericana en la lucha contra el narcotráfico

En una reciente conferencia [1], el siempre original e incisivo Noam Chomsky, se refería a las bases militares que EEUU está instalando en Colombia, con el objetivo oficial de ayudar al Gobierno de Bogotá en la guerra contra el narcotráfico.

Agentes de la Policía Federal Mexicana escoltan a sospechosos de narcotráfico, tal como se muestran a los medios de comunicación en la Ciudad de México.

Chomsky invitaba a considerar un caso análogo aunque con distintos protagonistas. Supóngase, decía, que Colombia, China o cualquier otro país reclamasen su derecho a establecer bases militares en México, con el fin de fumigar y destruir las plantaciones de tabaco que EEUU tiene en Carolina del Norte o en Kentucky, cultivadores tradicionales de esta planta. El plan se completaría con el bloqueo de las zonas productoras, mediante la acción de las fuerzas navales y aéreas, y con el envío de inspectores que comprobasen la total eliminación de tales plantaciones. Con todo esto se pretendería impedir el tráfico de tabaco hacia los países que sufren sus efectos.

Chomsky recuerda que el tabaquismo se ha revelado más letal que el alcoholismo, que a su vez es más dañino que el uso de cocaína o de heroína, las cuales son más perjudiciales que el cannabis. Si al número de muertes producidas por los productos nocivos aspirados por los fumadores se suman las causadas en los fumadores “pasivos” – aunque el número de éstos sea difícil de determinar – es casi seguro que el efecto letal global de la nicotiana tabacum supere al de todas las demás drogas, en su conjunto. Sería, pues, bastante lógico perseguir con más empeño a los cultivadores de tabaco que a los de coca.

Es evidente que esta suposición no es verosímil en la realidad, y no sólo porque el tabaco en la mayoría de países, no es una sustancia prohibida y muchas drogas sí lo son. Sin embargo, ante su lógica implacable, lo que habría que preguntarse es por qué ocurre así. Por qué EEUU, que dice sentirse afectado negativamente por las drogas que le llegan desde el sur del río Grande, se atribuye con naturalidad el derecho a desplegar sus ejércitos en Colombia para combatir a los cultivadores de coca de la zona, y no es siquiera concebible que ningún otro país pudiera hacer nada parecido si afectara a sus intereses de forma análoga.

Para Chomsky, la respuesta es sencilla y tiene una base indiscutible: la mentalidad imperial que subsiste en EEUU, y que está tan enraizada en el pensamiento de esta nación que pasa inadvertida. Hecho que también subsiste, aunque a menor escala, en muchos otros países occidentales – como es fácil observar en Europa.

Sin embargo, los resultados hasta ahora obtenidos parecen no justificar el esfuerzo empeñado. La “guerra contra el narcotráfico” dura ya más de cuatro décadas en Colombia y se ha intensificado en los últimos diez años: ni el consumo ni el tráfico de drogas han disminuido. Las razones que ofrece Chomsky no dejan lugar a dudas. Varios estudios bien fundamentados muestran que la prevención y el tratamiento de la adicción a las drogas son mucho más eficaces que las medidas de fuerza utilizadas en esta guerra interminable. Y que el tratamiento preventivo o curativo de los drogadictos – los consumidores en este negocio – tiene un rendimiento coste/eficacia que mejora en más de 20 veces a los ataques efectuados contra los cultivadores – el lado proveedor – en la “guerra química” desencadenada para destruir los campos de cultivo de la droga.

Según Chomsky, sólo hay dos hipótesis que permitirían explicar la situación actual y que se resumirían en alogo así como: “O los dirigentes de EEUU han sido sistemáticamente insensatos durante 40 años, o la finalidad de la guerra contra el narcotráfico es muy distinta a la que se proclama”. Excluida la hipótesis de la insensatez, sólo queda sospechar cuáles puedan ser las verdaderas razones de esa supuesta guerra.

Dentro de EEUU, siempre según Chomsky, dos hechos son patentes: la “limpieza” de la población socialmente menos útil (lo que ha llevado a EEUU al primer puesto mundial en el índice de población encarcelada) y, como sucede con la “guerra contra el terror”, el sometimiento y sumisión de una población atemorizada por el peligro de las drogas, para impedir que muestre su irritada oposición a unas políticas económicas que han llevado a EEUU al mayor desequilibrio social que jamás ha sufrido.

Por su parte, en el exterior, la guerra contra el narcotráfico es una forma de ocultar en Colombia – y en otros países – algunas de las más inmorales acciones antisubversivas. Es el segundo país del mundo (después de Sudán) con más población expulsada de sus hogares, mientras que las oligarquías locales y las multinacionales ocupan las tierras abandonadas por los campesinos y las dedican a explotaciones mineras, producciones agroindustriales, cría intensiva de ganado o infraestructuras para la industria, cuyos beneficios difícilmente llegarán a las poblaciones afectadas.

Ahora llega el momento de preguntarse si el presidente Obama seguirá el tortuoso camino trazado – y en ya parte recorrido – por sus antecesores, y frente al que todavía no ha mostrado tanta indignación como la que exhibió ante el bochorno de Guantánamo, o si, por el contrario, dispondrá de apoyos, medios y voluntades suficientes para salir del empantanado problema que Chomsky nos expone con tanta claridad pero cuya resolución se ve difícil y compleja, pues no depende sólo de las decisiones que adopte la Casa Blanca – aunque éstas puedan señalar al mundo el inicio de un nuevo camino.

[1] Noam Chomsky, Militarizing Latin America. chomsky.info. 30 de Agosto de  2009

Por una pedagogía sobre el impuesto carbono

La tasa sobre emisiones de carbono en el camino de vuelta a la economía del bienestar

.

>>Click here for English version

Con la creación de un impuesto para todo lo que contamine se quiere incitar al ciudadano a preservar el medio ambiente y en particular la atmósfera, que está en grave peligro. La idea es de sancionar la energía contaminante del transporte, el hábitat y el consumo personal. Cierto es que cada vez consumimos menos carburante, pero esto no es suficiente para alcanzar los objetivos fijados en la última conferencia sobre cambio climático. De ahí la idea de obligar a pagar un impuesto (por cada tonelada de energía fósil que se emita) con el fin de que el mundo disminuya a la mitad las emisiones de gas con efecto de invernadero (de aquí a 2050) para limitar en 2 grados el calentamiento de la Tierra, causante del cambio climático.

El calentamiento global debido a los gases de efecto invernadero por la combustión del dióxido de carbono representa 49.000 millones de TN de Co2 cuya emisión ha de ser sancionable. Sus efectos podrían conducir a un aumento global de 3% de la temperatura dentro de 100 años aproximadamente. El coste del recalentamiento se estima en unos 5.500.000 millones de euros (Nicholas Stern) [1]. Mientras que el concepto de una tasa sobre las emisiones de CO2 viene de Arthur Pigou (Economics of Welfare) [2] quien el primero, en 1920, estableció aquello de que el que contamina, paga.

Ahora bien…

• ¿la tasa ha de gravar el producto o la energía consumida?
• ¿como gravar los productos importados?
• ¿como evitar los riesgos de desigualdad?
• ¿qué hacer con los ingresos de la tasa?

Las soluciones adoptadas por cada país son diferentes.

Francia, con unos 50.000 millones de euros de fiscalidad ambiental en el bote, acusa un cierto retraso. La estructura misma de esa fiscalidad medioambiental francesa es tan disparatada por el hincapié voluntarista que la impregna que no engendra beneficios -en el sentido de contribución neta o ingresos – sino solo impuestos sobre el agua, sobre las basuras, sobre el consumo de hidrocarburos (TIPP), que no se revierten en mejoras de ningún tipo (infraestructuras, responsabilización ciudadana) sino que es el enésimo parche gubernamental para ir tapando, como pueden, el fenomenal agujero del déficit publico. La pedagogía se confunde con una verborrea demagógica y fatalista que confunde al hombre de la calle porque ignora las virtudes del consenso que, en todos los países del entorno tiene su origen en el debate parlamentario -que es donde calienta motores la soberanía popular y en donde debería decidirse tal fiscalidad, y no en los salones del palacio presidencial como ocurre en la república gala – son cosas de esta santa república francesa que, aunque chochea sigue negándose a cambiar de piel. Esas tasas representan un 3% del PIB… tiradas a la basura. A menos de considerar a Francia como el país más limpio de Europa, gracias a su desmesurado programa nuclear -que convierte, al contrario, a ese país en el menos seguro por el obvio peligro potencial de incidentes nucleares que su parque de centrales puede suponer y en cuanto a cantidad de desechos radioactivos respecta -el más elevado por habitante del planeta. La demagogia continua, la huida hacia adelante, también. El único punto positivo es la hidroelectricidad, que genera el 93 % de los recursos energéticos… con el inconveniente agravado de venir impulsado por la ‘pila’ nuclear. ¿A quién vamos a engañar? Si la disminución de emisiones de CO2 ha de conllevar el desarrollo galopante de la bestia nuclear, entonces ¿a donde vamos? Desnudamos a un santo para vestir a otro.

Además la tasa sobre emisiones de CO2 en un país no tiene realidad cuantificable ni impacto sobre las emisiones de CO2 a nivel planetario. Se necesitan políticas globales para internalizar los costes ambientales y actuar sobre el comportamiento de empresas y hogares. Ese es el principio más sano. Francia se equivoca en la manera de llevarlo a cabo: confusión sobre el alcance de la tasa misma (se pasa alegremente de  20, a 32, para subir a 100 euros/TN emitida hacia el 2030, para luego quedar en ¿quién puede decir si es 14 ó 100 p.ej.?), sobre las exoneraciones, sobre su utilización. El incremento del coste de la vida está servido: se estima en 10% el sobrecoste de calefacción en los hogares franceses para  2010, de 5 a 10 cts. para el litro de combustible en el surtidor ahora mismo. Otra consecuencia es que se arruinará lo que queda de industria local (la hemorragia actual es la mayor jamás vista en Francia), sólo se librarán los de siempre: unos cuantos (grandes) grupos que se pueden permitir asumir tales sobrecostes en medio de un desierto industrial. ¿Quién va a invertir en un país que anuncia que va a gravar con 100 euros cada TN de CO2 emitida? Como con la famosa ley de 35h, no se ha llevado a cabo ningún estudio o reflexión para ponerla en práctica en vez de intentar coordinarse con el resto de países del entorno europeo. El diablo está en los detalles, dicen los franceses…

Se habla de compensaciones, pero ¿qué hay de la desigualdad entre consumidores? ¿Qué hacer con los 8.000 millones que se supone el estado va ingresar por el concepto (pasarán a engordar las arcas del ministerio de hacienda, p.ej.)?

Pedagogía sueca contra demagogia francesa

Otros países como Suecia también han establecido una tasa, más cuantiosa aún si cabe, pero con un modus operandi muy diferente: p.ej. el impuesto sueco implica una escala degresiva para las empresas que más inviertan en innovación tecnológica para mejorar los procesos productivos en materia de emisiones de CO2 -esto sí que es pedagogía. Es mal momento en términos de coyuntura de crisis económica pero la medida es creíble en Suecia y demagógica en Francia en donde el impuesto no se sabe si será redistribuido o se convertirá en el enésimo impuesto ‘neutro’, lo cual está bastante alejado de la incitación pigouviana de la que el primer ministro Fillon se declara partidario.

Porque según el principio de que el impuesto sobre la vaca no es la vaca quien lo paga, el impuesto sobre emisiones de CO2, no es el que consume CO2 quien paga: la política de medio ambiente no se puede resumir a elevar el nivel impositivo o a implementar nuevos impuestos, a menos de volver a las andadas e incrementar el desempleo y la deuda pública. Un año es el impuesto bonus/malus sobre los coches (que ha arruinado a buena parte de la industria del automóvil, con una caída de 40% de la producción francesa, obligando a los constructores a abandonar la provechosa fabricación de berlinas para dedicarse a la de coches pequeños sobre los que el margen de beneficio es nulo o casi nulo), otro año un impuesto sobre los pañales de los recién nacidos, este año uno sobre emisiones de CO2… una tomadura de pelo (o mejor aún, una política miope).

La tentación de gravar los súper beneficios de la industria petrolífera (Ségolène Royal) no tendría más que repercusiones negativas en el bolsillo de los más expuestos (es decir el consumidor). Mejor un impuesto que cambie los comportamientos y no que pase a engordar simplemente las arcas del Estado y su tren de vida. Informar y comunicar bien al ciudadano sin ansias de querer cambiar todo de un plumazo y a base de decretos.

Se necesitan reformas en la fiscalidad de todos nuestros países, fiscalidad incitativa y no subvenciones a industrias para que fabriquen coches de tal tipo -que de todos modos habrían fabricado. Seamos honestos: el impuesto ecológico es justo y necesario, pero que nos ayude a salir de la crisis permanente del capitalismo virtual y rampante, alejado de la economía real. Nada de aranceles ecológicos en las fronteras europeas, tendencia defendida por algunos, en su afán por llevarnos hacia un nuevo proteccionismo; más bien orientarse hacia políticas globales, como mínimo europeas, mejor a nivel global. Es inútil establecer políticas nacionales sin concertarse con el resto, lo que daría lugar a políticas proteccionistas más o menos latentes: ahí está el comercio mundial con una caída del 12%, si se quiere añadir más crisis a la crisis añadamos pues la perversión del proteccionismo a todas las dificultades que hoy encaramos. El medio ambiente es un bien público planetario. Bien es cierto que no sabemos todavía como afrontar externalidades cada día mayores, como la que constituye el reto de que cuando China o Brasil contaminan, no lo hacen únicamente en sus respectivos territorios sino a nivel planetario: pero imponer aranceles es teóricamente un edificio bonito, en la practica es una regresión proteccionista pura y dura. Además que no hay que olvidar que la crítica contra China es injusta: la RPC está realizando verdaderos esfuerzos para disminuir drásticamente la contaminación de sus industrias -lo que todavía no ocurre en todos nuestros países.

Una de las mayores incógnitas es la de saber cual será la actitud de Estados Unidos. Hasta el momento consideraron que el protocolo de Kyoto carecía de interés, la posición está cambiando pero todo depende del tipo de cambios que ocurrirán en ese país. Los escenarios son a mi entender: el papel del G20, el relanzamiento de la ronda (OMC) de Doha y la cita climática de Copenhague. Los tres giran alrededor de la misma inquietud: la necesidad de una gobernanza económica mundial para responder a tales desafíos.

Pedagogía inexistente en EEUU Y Reino Unido

Queda pendiente la talla cada vez mayor de los flujos de capital especulativo, que es hoy mayor que hace un año, en el peor momento de la crisis financiero-hipotecaria. El capital especulativo se arroja sobre las economías emergentes en cuanto aparecen los primeros síntomas de alivio. Y el banco central de la RP China se ve cada día más abocado a comprar enormes reservas de cambio para sostener a un enfermo dólar (de este modo unos 70.000 millones de dólares mensuales, se escapan del circuito de inversiones productivas con el fin de impedir que la divisa estadounidense se desplome de nuevo), desviándolas precisamente de inversiones en su economía productiva. Es decir que en lo esencial, no hemos alterado los desequilibrios mundiales, e incluso son algo mayores que los anteriores a la crisis. El problema de bonos y primas a ejecutivos es menor que el de el necesario desmantelamiento de la opacidad en la banca de inversión -lo que será imposible en la más importante plaza financiera europea, la City londinense, ya que el futuro primerministrable Cameron se opone a ello; en cuanto a EEUU, es por el momento inimaginable. Por el momento los mejores indicadores de la City y de NY – las colas ante los mejores restaurantes – se portan bien pues las reservas de mesa varían entre 2 y 3 meses… bonos, primas, coches de lujo, contratos estratosféricos están de nuevo a la vuelta de la esquina. Para broche un botón: los flujos intercambiarios en los mercados de derivados alcanzan un record de vértigo: casi 10 veces el PIB mundial. Entonces, ¿cómo puede David controlar a Goliat?

Continuará…

.

[1] El Informe Stern sobre la economía del cambio climático (Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change) es un informe sobre el impacto del cambio climático y el calentamiento global sobre la economía mundial. Redactado por el economista Sir Nicholas Stern por encargo del gobierno del Reino Unido fue publicado en octubre de 2006. El informe supone un hito histórico al ser el primer informe encargado por un gobierno a un economista en lugar de a un climatólogo.

[2] Arthur Pigou es considerado el fundador de la Economía del Bienestar y principal precursor del movimiento ecologista al establecer la distinción entre costes marginales privados y sociales y abogar por la intervención del estado mediante subsidios e impuestos para corregir los fallos del mercado e internalizar las externalidades. Welfare Economics es su obra más emblemática.

El calentamiento global debido a los gases de efecto invernadero por la combustión del dióxido de carbono representa 49.000 millones de TN de Co2 cuya emisión ha de ser sancionable. Sus efectos podrían conducir a un aumento global de 3% de la temperatura dentro de 100 años aproximadamente. El coste del recalentamiento se estima en unos 5.500.000 millones de euros (Nicholas Stern) [1]. Mientras que el concepto de una tasa sobre las emisiones de CO2 viene de Arthur Pigou (Economics of Welfare) [2] quien el primero, en 1920, estableció aquello de que el que contamina, paga.

Ahora bien…

¿la tasa ha de gravar el producto o la energía consumida?

¿como gravar los productos importados?

¿como evitar los riesgos de desigualdad?

¿qué hacer con los ingresos de la tasa?

Las soluciones adoptadas por cada país son diferentes.

Francia, con unos 50.000 millones de euros de fiscalidad ambiental en el bote, acusa un cierto retraso. La estructura misma de esa fiscalidad medioambiental francesa es tan disparatada por el hincapié voluntarista que la impregna que no engendra beneficios -en el sentido de contribución neta o ingresos – sino solo impuestos sobre el agua, sobre las basuras, sobre el consumo de hidrocarburos (TIPP), que no se revierten en mejoras de ningún tipo (infraestructuras, responsabilización ciudadana) sino que es el enésimo parche gubernamental para ir tapando, como pueden, el fenomenal agujero del déficit publico. La pedagogía se confunde con una verborrea demagógica y fatalista que confunde al hombre de la calle porque ignora las virtudes del consenso que, en todos los países del entorno tiene su origen en el debate parlamentario -que es donde calienta motores la soberanía popular y en donde debería decidirse tal fiscalidad, y no en los salones del palacio presidencial como ocurre en la república gala. Otro síntoma del estilo de esta V repùblica bonapartista gala que se niega a cambiar de piel. Esas tasas representan un 3% del PIB… tiradas a la basura. A menos de considerar a Francia como el país más limpio de Europa, gracias a su desmesurado programa nuclear -que convierte, al contrario, a ese país en el menos seguro por el obvio peligro potencial de incidentes nucleares que su parque de centrales puede suponer y en cuanto a cantidad de desechos radioactivos respecta -el más elevado por habitante del planeta. La demagogia continua, la huida hacia adelante, también. El único punto positivo es la hidroelectricidad, que genera el 93 % de los recursos energéticos… con el inconveniente agravado de venir impulsado por la ‘pila’ nuclear. ¿A quién vamos a engañar? Si la disminución de emisiones de CO2 ha de conllevar el desarrollo galopante de la bestia nuclear, entonces ¿a donde vamos? Desnudamos a un santo para vestir a otro.

Además la tasa sobre emisiones de CO2 en un país no tiene realidad cuantificable ni impacto sobre las emisiones de CO2 a nivel planetario. Se necesitan políticas globales para internalizar los costes ambientales y actuar sobre el comportamiento de empresas y hogares. Ese es el principio más sano. Francia se equivoca en la manera de llevarlo a cabo: confusión sobre el alcance de la tasa misma (se pasa alegremente de  20, a 32, para subir a 100 euros/TN emitida hacia el 2030, para luego quedar en ¿quién puede decir si es 14 ó 100 p.ej.?), sobre las exoneraciones, sobre su utilización. El incremento del coste de la vida está servido: se estima en 10% el sobrecoste de calefacción en los hogares franceses para  2010, de 5 a 10 cts. para el litro de combustible en el surtidor ahora mismo. Otra consecuencia es que se arruinará lo que queda de industria local (la hemorragia actual es la mayor jamás vista en Francia), sólo se librarán los de siempre: unos cuantos (grandes) grupos que se pueden permitir asumir tales sobrecostes en medio de un desierto industrial. ¿Quién va a invertir en un país que anuncia que va a gravar con 100 euros cada TN de CO2 emitida? Como con la famosa ley de 35h, no se ha llevado a cabo ningún estudio o reflexión para ponerla en práctica en vez de intentar coordinarse con el resto de países del entorno europeo. El diablo está en los detalles, dicen los franceses…

Se habla de compensaciones, pero ¿qué hay de la desigualdad entre consumidores? ¿Qué hacer con los 8.000 millones que se supone el estado va ingresar por el concepto (engordar las arcas del ministerio de hacienda, p.ej.)?

Pedagogía sueca contra demagogia francesa

Otros países como Suecia también han establecido una tasa, más cuantiosa aún si cabe, pero con un modus operandi muy diferente: p.ej. el impuesto sueco implica una escala degresiva para las empresas que más inviertan en innovación tecnológica para mejorar los procesos productivos en materia de emisiones de CO2 -esto sí que es pedagogía. Es mal momento en términos de coyuntura de crisis económica pero la medida es creíble en Suecia y demagógica en Francia en donde el impuesto no se sabe si será redistribuido o se convertirá en el enésimo impuesto ‘neutro’, lo cual está bastante alejado de la incitación pigouviana de la que el primer ministro Fillon se declara partidario.

Porque según el principio de que el impuesto sobre la vaca no es la vaca quien lo paga, el impuesto sobre emisiones de CO2, no es el que consume CO2 quien paga: la política de medio ambiente no se puede resumir a elevar el nivel impositivo o a implementar nuevos impuestos, a menos de volver a las andadas e incrementar el desempleo y la deuda pública. Un año es el impuesto bonus/malus sobre los coches (que ha arruinado a buena parte de la industria del automóvil, con una caída de 40% de la producción francesa, obligando a los constructores a abandonar la provechosa fabricación de berlinas para dedicarse a la de coches pequeños sobre los que el margen de beneficio es nulo o casi nulo), otro año un impuesto sobre los pañales de los recién nacidos, este año uno sobre emisiones de CO2… una tomadura de pelo (o mejor aún, una política miope).

La tentación de gravar los súper beneficios de la industria petrolífera (Ségolène Royal) no tendría más que repercusiones negativas en el bolsillo de los más expuestos (es decir el consumidor). Mejor un impuesto que cambie los comportamientos y no que pase a engordar simplemente las arcas del Estado y su tren de vida. Informar y comunicar bien al ciudadano sin ansias de querer cambiar todo de un plumazo y a base de decretos.

Se necesitan reformas en la fiscalidad de todos nuestros países, fiscalidad incitativa y no subvenciones a industrias para que fabriquen coches de tal tipo -que de todos modos habrían fabricado. Seamos honestos: el impuesto ecológico es justo y necesario, pero que nos ayude a salir de la crisis permanente del capitalismo virtual y rampante, alejado de la economía real. Nada de aranceles ecológicos en las fronteras europeas, tendencia defendida por algunos, en su afán por llevarnos hacia un nuevo proteccionismo; más bien orientarse hacia políticas globales, como mínimo europeas, mejor a nivel global. Es inútil establecer políticas nacionales sin concertarse con el resto, lo que daría lugar a políticas proteccionistas más o menos latentes: ahí está el comercio mundial con una caída del 12%, si se quiere añadir más crisis a la crisis añadamos pues la perversión del proteccionismo a todas las dificultades que hoy encaramos. El medio ambiente es un bien público planetario. Bien es cierto que no sabemos todavía como afrontar externalidades cada día mayores, como la que constituye el reto de que cuando China o Brasil contaminan, no lo hacen únicamente en sus respectivos territorios sino a nivel planetario: pero imponer aranceles es teóricamente un edificio bonito, en la practica es una regresión proteccionista pura y dura. Además que no hay que olvidar que la crítica contra China es injusta: la RPC está realizando verdaderos esfuerzos para disminuir drásticamente la contaminación de sus industrias -lo que todavía no ocurre en todos nuestros países.

Una de las mayores incógnitas es la de saber cual será la actitud de Estados Unidos. Hasta el momento consideraron que el protocolo de Kyoto carecía de interés, la posición está cambiando pero todo depende del tipo de cambios que ocurrirán en ese país. Los escenarios son a mi entender: el papel del G20, el relanzamiento de la ronda (OMC) de Doha y la cita climática de Copenhague. Los tres giran alrededor de la misma inquietud: la necesidad de una gobernanza económica mundial para responder a tales desafíos.

Pedagogía inexistente en EEUU Y Reino Unido

Queda pendiente la talla cada vez mayor de los flujos de capital especulativo, que es hoy mayor que hace un año, en el peor momento de la crisis financiero-hipotecaria. El capital especulativo se arroja sobre las economías emergentes en cuanto aparecen los primeros síntomas de alivio. Y el banco central de la RP China se ve cada día más abocado a comprar enormes reservas de cambio para sostener a un enfermo dólar (de este modo unos 70.000 millones de dólares mensuales, se escapan del circuito de inversiones productivas con el fin de impedir que la divisa estadounidense se desplome de nuevo), desviándolas precisamente de inversiones en su economía productiva. Es decir que en lo esencial, no hemos alterado los desequilibrios mundiales, e incluso son algo mayores que los anteriores a la crisis. El problema de bonos y primas a ejecutivos es menor que el de el necesario desmantelamiento de la opacidad en la banca de inversión -lo que será imposible en la más importante plaza financiera europea, la City londinense, ya que el futuro primerministrable Cameron se opone a ello; en cuanto a EEUU, es por el momento inimaginable. Por el momento los mejores indicadores de la City y de NY – las colas ante los mejores restaurantes – se portan bien pues las reservas de mesa varían entre 2 y 3 meses… bonos, primas, coches de lujo, contratos estratosféricos están de nuevo a la vuelta de la esquina. Para broche un botón: los flujos intercambiarios en los mercados de derivados alcanzan un record de vértigo: casi 10 veces el PIB mundial. Entonces, ¿cómo puede David controlar a Goliat?

Continuará…

[1] El Informe Stern sobre la economía del cambio climático (Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change) es un informe sobre el impacto del cambio climático y el calentamiento global sobre la economía mundial. Redactado por el economista Sir Nicholas Stern por encargo del gobierno del Reino Unido fue publicado en octubre de 2006. El informe supone un hito histórico al ser el primer informe encargado por un gobierno a un economista en lugar de a un climatólogo.

[2] Arthur Pigou es considerado el fundador de la Economía del Bienestar y principal precursor del movimiento ecologista al establecer la distinción entre costes marginales privados y sociales y abogar por la intervención del estado mediante subsidios e impuestos para corregir los fallos del mercado e internalizar las externalidades. Welfare Economics es su obra más emblemática.

or una pedagogía de la tasa sobre emisiones de carbono