A 3D Exploration of Picasso’s Guernica by Lena Gieseke ©

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The ‘Guernica’ is a powerful masterpiece, an oil canvas, of very impressive proportions (782 x351 cm), that Pablo R. Picasso made in 1937 for the Paris International Exhibition.
The fabric, black and white, represents the bombing of the town of Gernika on 26 April 1937 by the Nazi German Aviation. The canvas is currently exhibited at the National Museum Centro de Arte Reina Sofía.

Now, a New York artist Lena Gieseke, who is very conversant with modern digital computer graphics techniques, has decided to propose a 3D version of the famous masterwork and hang it on the Internet, in video form. The result is fascinating and gives out visualizing imaginary details that, otherwise, we would have overlooked.

Even though, I am not fully aware what Pablo Picasso would think …

Thanks to my lovely Geneviève who forwarded me the video.She’s always raring to go for new amazing adventures :)

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EU plans microcredit line to tackle youth unemployment

EU plans microcredit line to tackle youth unemployment

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With jobless rates rising, the 27-member bloc is working on a 100-million-euro ($139-million) microloan program to help unemployed young people start their own businesses.

The unemployment rate for those under the age of 25 in the European Union reached 21.4 percent in December, according to statistics released on Friday, January 29, by Eurostat, the EU’s statistics office.

That’s up from 16.9 percent for the same month the year before and more than twice as much as the 9.6 percent unemployment rate across the population of the EU.

Spain, the country currently holding the EU’s rotating presidency, has been particularly hard hit by the global economic crisis. Unemployment for under-25-years-old Spaniards is at 44.5 percent. “There is not a single country in Europe that is not worried about youth unemployment,” said Spanish Employment Minister Celestino Corbacho at a meeting with his counterparts in Barcelona on Friday.

What is to be done?

Corbacho confirmed that the EU was working on a plan to provide microloans to young people.

“One measure the European Commission is working on is that of microloans for young entrepreneurs,” Corbacho said in a release on the Spanish EU presidency’s website. “There may be a chance of an immediate agreement, as quickly as possible.”

The program suggested would involve a fund of 100 million euros for unemployed youth or the long-term unemployed. The microcredit program would target those people who tend to have difficulties getting loans from banks and evaluate potential loan recipients based on social rather than financial criteria, according to the Spanish presidency.

The Spanish presidency will present a final proposal to the European Commission in the coming weeks, according to outgoing Employment Commissioner Vladimir Spidla.

Unrepentant Blair

Protestors called Blair a 'liar' and a 'war criminal'

Former Prime Minister Tony Blair has been appearing before an inquiry looking into Britain’s involvement in the Iraq War. Blair said he did not wait for UN backing, because he believed it would never be given.

Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair said he wanted the backing of the United Nations in the Iraq war, but believed that he would never get it. Giving evidence to a UK public inquiry into the decision to go to war, he said he thought that it would be pointless to continue debating the war with fellow United Nations Security Council members.

The inquiry is examining the legitimacy of the war as well as when the decision on providing military support for the 2003 US-led invasion was made. Blair, now an international envoy to the Middle East, said he doubted at the time that it would be possible to secure a UN “second resolution” that would add legitimacy to the war under international law.

“It was very, very clear to me that the French, the Germans and the Russians had decided they weren’t going to be in favor of this (…) There was a straightforward division, frankly, and I don’t think it would have mattered how much time we had taken; they weren’t going to agree that force should be used.”

Blair denied the accusation that he made a secret agreement with his US counterpart George W. Bush to go to war in Iraq. The former Labour Party leader was asked whether he had pledged to support the war during a visit to the then president’s ranch in Crawford, Texas. Blair said he had told Bush, “we are going to be with you in confronting and dealing with this threat,” but that no promises were made.


9/11 attacks changed judgement

The September 11 attacks changed the “calculus of risk” and meant it was no longer possible to contain Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein through sanctions, Blair also said. Britain committed 45,000 troops to the war. It was the most controversial episode of Blair’s 10-year premiership, provoking huge protests, divisions within his party and accusations he had deceived the public about the justification for invasion.

Under close questioning, Blair said the September 11 Qaeda attacks on the United States – and the threat of weapons of mass destruction – were the main factors in Britain’s decision to invade Iraq.

“We were advised that these people would use chemical or biological weapons or a nuclear device if they could get hold of them; that completely changed our assessment of where the risks for security lay.”

Unrepentant Blair defends war in Iraq without UN backing

No regrets over decision

At the end of the session, Blair said that he did not regret the war despite the fact that weapons of mass destruction were not found.

“If I’m asked if I believe we are safer, more secure, that Iraq is better with Saddam and his two sons out of power, then I believe indeed we are.”

The British inquiry has already heard from senior civil servants who said intelligence in the days before the March 20, 2003 invasion indicated that Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction had already been dismantled.

Protesters outside of the building where the inquiry was being held chanted “Tony Blair, war criminal!” as he entered through a back door amid high security.

Observers say that Blair’s appearance may not only affect his personal political legacy but also damage the Labour government of his successor Gordon Brown, who was chancellor of the Exchequer at the time of the Iraq invasion.

France is Living a Conservative Revolution

Conservative Morals in the country of human rights
Paid holidays, May 68, abortion rights, PACS (1) … social progress in France was plentiful in the 20th century and this country has long been a leader in Europe. Today this no longer seems to be the case. In its place, family, work, authority and pride of being French values are currently intensifying. So therefore, some point the finger at a come back to traditional fractures, particularly since the coming to power of Nicolas Sarkozy. What is it really? Does France going through a conservative revolution? Overview on topics discussed in public opinion.

When gay marriage?
Ten years after coming into force of PACS, marriage gateway to homosexual couples is still in discussion in public opinion — while five European countries have already approved it (Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, Norway and Sweden). Mayor of Montpellier Mrs. Hélène Mandroux, launched a formal appeal in favor of gay marriage for the sake of “equal rights”. She has received support from several mayors, such as Pierre Cohen (Toulouse), Bertrand Delanoë (Paris) or Martine Aubry (Lille). Cécile Duflot on behalf of the Greens and Marie-George Buffet on behalf of the Communist Party have also rallied to the cause.

Adoption, always restrained.
If nine European countries now allow it, France still refuses to allow adoption by homosexual couples. Law is very restrictive: in order to adopt you must be either married or unmarried heterosexual and in fact the preferred profile is a couple married under 40, childless, and with a comfortable financial position. The Court of Besancon has ordered, however, the General Council of Jura region to issue an approval for adoption to Mrs Emmanuelle B., a homosexual teacher who fought for this for over ten years. France has in fact been condemned by the European Court of Human Rights in 2008 for sex discrimination. Do we head towards an adoption gap to homosexuals? Nothing is less certain, government has just  reaffirm its opposition to any change in the law.

A very restrictive law on assisted reproduction.
Medically assisted procreation (PMA), relating to all the techniques (artificial insemination, fertilization in vitro…) designed to help unfertile couples to conceive outside the natural union and obtain a successful pregnancy, is extremely restrained in France. It is reserved to heterosexual couples only, married or not. France is one of the most restrictive in this area: Belgium, Spain, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom allow it for homosexual couples and single women; these countries also provide PMA forensics, i.e. after the death of the companion who has previously done frozen semen and given his consent. Is this a sign of real ethical concerns or a certain conservatism of morals?

Surrogate mothers have no legal existence in France.
Surrogate motherhood is still banned in France. As a result, every year between 300 and 400 infertile couples go abroad, in countries where it is permitted to apply for a surrogate angel. But children born of this practice have no civil status in France … The Mennesson couple, whose twin girls were carried by a Californian woman in 2000 and who still do not have a civil status in France, are moving their fight from the field of media to the political field. Attitudes begin to evolve already: according to a recent survey, 65% of French would think positively on it; and the Senate had even suggested it in a report issued in 2008. Will surrogates then soon be recognized in France? Wait and see… revision of the laws of bioethics in 2010 for an early response.

Legalization of cannabis far from the agenda.
Daniel Vaillant, socialist MP and former Minister of Interior, has just reopened the controversy on the legalization of cannabis — saying he supports it. He suggests a control of production and import to reduce consumption, as currently done with alcohol. President Sarkozy’s UMP ruling party, immediately retorted saying the proposal was “totally unacceptable”. Currently the French law is one of the strictest in Europe since it not only proscribes production and selling of cannabis. It also punishes personal consumption even for soft drugs. If legalization issue is regularly on public debate, it seems that we are still far from a legal endorsement.

Elected representatives, fully representative of the people?
MP Representatives and senators elected by the people are representatives thereof… Do they? In fact, they are sometimes far from resembling the citizens who elected them… Thus, if French population counts on 52% women, the National Assembly (House of Representatives) only trusts 18.2% of them – putting France on the 62nd in the world rankings, just after Venezuela and Nicaragua; almost the same percentage of women in Parliament than Sudan (18.1%), while women’s status is extremely different!

And France does not differ either on the social origin background of MPs … While employees and workers represent more than half the working population, only 1% of representatives come from their ranks.

Women and the glass ceiling (2)
In general, women are underrepresented in all the dominant positions both in companies as in public life (they occupy only 15 % of senior management positions in the civil service). It is customary to say that they are trapped under a glass ceiling that prevents them from reaching the summit. They are also victims of various inequalities at work: all work time together, they earn average 27% less than men. And they suffer extra part-time occupation, more than their male colleagues: 8.6% compared to 2.4% of men.

Immigrants and discrimination.
French of foreign extraction keep on facing discrimination in hiring. Thus, on average and equal skills, a French applicant with a French name (and surname) has 1.5 to 3 times more interview proposals than a French-Moroccan.
Unemployment affects much more foreign than French: on average, over one-fifth of the active EU non-nationals were unemployed in 2007, compared to 8 % for the workforce as a whole and to 7.5 % of French.
High Authority against Discrimination and for Equality (HALDE), annually receives thousands of complaints about it.

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(1) The Pacte Civil de Solidarité (PACS) is a legal alternative to marriage, a civil union which gives ‘pacser’ couples many of the same legal rights of a traditionally married couple.
(2) i.e. gender gap

Obama Lays Siege to the Financial Casino

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The tragedy that hit Haiti last week meant a welcome sigh of relief to the four Wall Street emperors. That sad day — Wednesday 13 to be exact – wherein more than 111,000 people were killed in one of the poorest countries in the world, Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman Sachs CEO; James Dimon, JP Morgan Chase CEO; John J . Mack, Morgan Stanley CEO and Brian T. Moynihan, Bank of America CEO, responded to questioning by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC), a commission created by President Obama last year to investigate and discover the perpetrators of the worst financial crisis of the past 70 years.

The catastrophe in Haiti prevented these four glorious characters to get the front pages and the information came buried in the back pages the next day. Parts of the final reports are here. They worth a look for a clearer understanding of recent events and from which the press has turned a blind eye, such as articles published today by El Pais, one of Sandro Pozzi and another by Peter Larsen. None’s aware of the reasons for President Obama to besiege bankers — “If they want war, we will give them,” he said Friday — as well as the requirement to divide the largest banks into smaller entities, or the application of $ 120,000 million tax expected to recover some of the rescue plans. This is a direct comeback to the results of last week and which the press did not report.

Wall Street bankers admit mistakes by the financial crisis. In their view, they already assumed an attitude of apology – but they did not actually account for their acts. As when Lloyd Blankfein said: “What we did, didn’t worked well. We regret that people have lost so much money. ” But what “not worked well” for the people, worked well for them, they who shared out hundreds of billions of dollars in bonuses.

As of Wednesday and Thursday last week, bankers totally downplayed the consequences of the crisis: “It was the perfect storm of the year”, Blankfein said, while James Dimon trivialized “This happens every five or six years”, as if we were into a normal slowdown business cycle and not into a systemic failure founded on financial basis generated by fraud. And although they were cautious not to blame the government, the government caught them and wouldn’t let go of the piece. Furthermore when the bank has continued speculating and creating the seeds of the next crisis.

The investigation led by Sheila Bair, of the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) helped to illustrate that the trouble is structural and that government and consumers have long been hostage of Wall Street. The frantic struggle to eliminate the Glass-Steagall Act was one of their results. Now you understand Obama’s saying “We will never again be held hostage to banks too big to fail”. And this is just the beginning.

The investigation detected that commercial and investment banks, in collusion with political world, managed to completely disable the security mechanisms and take full control of the system while cheating the government. No public institution was relevant to their view, all public boards were pawn agencies like the SEC — that despite having warned of repeated fraud cases as Bernie Madoff, failed authorizations to investigate and arrest, and so the unscrupulous swindlers could commit crimes with the gentle complicity of the banks. Financial capital formed its own internal guerrilla and finished devouring the industrial capital, the one producing and creating jobs.

Much of this is because the leading figures of finance (Henry Paulson, Timothy Geithner, Lawrence Summers and Robert Rubin) have held positions in banking, government and Wall Street: what must be considered a real incest. You can not serve two masters, being Secretary of the Treasury (that is, a high state official servant) and hold such visible ties with commercial banks, more so when the Fed, is since 1914 a fully private body which lends money to the state, and whose interests are paid by all taxpayers. It would not be surprising that once the whole truth is done Fed decides to return to the Treasury. Maybe Paul Volcker’s plan has already thought about it.

Coppola’s Tetro a Surrealistic Treasure

Frances Ford Coppola’s (The Godfather, Apocalypse Now) most recent film Tetro is positively an improvement upon his last independent production Youth Without Youth. Where that film felt indulgent and disappointing, this one has an emotional tide that hits like a hammer to the heart, the central relationship one full of highs and lows so uncompromising and generous trying to assess them all and give them meaning takes more than a single viewing.

With obvious echoes to Vittorio De Sica, François Truffaut, Federico Fellini and Pedro Almodóvar, Coppola has composed a sublime interpersonal familial masterwork that can sometimes feel like a slap to the cheek. Tetro and Bennie’s relationship is never quite anticipated, their ultimate destination one of beautiful yet unnerving simplicity. There is a profound believability to it all that shook me up, the destination so fantastical the journey getting there almost didn’t even matter.

On a technical side the film is luminously shot. The Mihai Malaimare’s sublime use of black and white is magnetic and poetical. While the director mixes in a few color moments here and there (Coppelia doll-like dances on the edge of the fantastical), it is the main narrative that retains the most weight, the cinematographer’s magnificent ability to bring it all to such pure realization a testament to both his skill and the Oscar-winning director’s storytelling abilities.

It helps that actors as Alden Ehrenreich (Bennie) and Maribel Verdú (Miranda) are more than up to the challenge. Ehrenreich is a discovery: he photographs like a young Marlon Brando and under an exceptional direction makes miracles in his role. There are however some over-indulgent moments by Vincent Gallo. And that is not a minor obstacle (is there a less appealing actor than Gallo?). Acting aside and frequently cliché, Gallo often remains peripheral and inexpressive.

The first 20 minutes drag a bit too much and are filled with cliché’s, yes some dialogs may seem a bit flat and insincere, but then the drama picks up, the relationships evolve and the story becomes so baroque, melodramatic and enjoyable.

The film, for all its beauty, can feel a bit like a vanity project, and especially towards the end there were sequences where I almost couldn’t help but wonder what in the world Coppola was thinking. Overall, however, these moments did not bother. You simply don’t care about them, the central storyline revolving around Tetro, Bennie and Miranda is so strong and the emotional investment so high.  And the captivating city of Buenos Aires is a fabulous character that breaths a life of its own. Buenos Aires has an old fashion, a seductive kind of elegance nowhere better found than here.

Coppola has chosen to take a completely unorthodox road to depict the most unusual of his Italian family sagas. In the manner of Almodóvar. The result is a baroque, exaggerated, convincing, visually dramatic movie, which I am sure I will want to watch soon again.

Haiti, Death of Pariah

The difference is not in nature but in the dark nature of money.

Injured children sit along Delmas road, Port-au-Prince, Haiti (AP Photo/Jorge Cruz)

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The historical premises.

A few days after the tragic earthquake that struck Haiti, we should remember the responsibilities from France but also the United States and Spain in the misery of this small Caribbean country.
Christopher Columbus landed on the shores of Hipaniola in 1492, and the native people there were all but wiped out by Spanish settlers within 25 years. In 1697, Spain ceded the western part of the island, now Haiti, to France, which made it into the wealthiest colony in the Caribbean due to thriving forestry and sugar industries, and the heavy importation of African slaves.
But in the late 18th century a slave rebellion under leader Toussaint Louverture was successful and after a long struggle, it became a republic on January 1, 1804.
Haiti is a country towards which France has a debt…  The country gained its independence heavily indebted to France…  Do you know that Haiti has spent the 19th century to pay its debt to the ancient metropolis?  They paid on the nail their independence to France.
Haiti has also experienced the beginnings of American imperialism which has repeatedly invaded this sorrowful country.
We, French, Americans, Spaniards have exploited this people, we destroyed this island…  the best evidence of this complicity is that France has hosted on its soil the fallen Haitian dictator Bébé Doc… Our assistance is a form of payment.  Help them is paying our debt.

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The enormous bearing of indifference.

Nobody can predict natural tragedies, but one can live in a skyscraper in Japan and only have suffered a scratch. Or you can live in any corner of Haiti and die like thousands of fellow men. The difference is not in nature but in the dark nature of money and power, dividing the world between those who have an existence and those struggling to get a sham of living.  Some live, others survive, and if it has always been that way since man is dragged by this suffering planet, this is particularly glaring since science and technology intended to make possible the dream of Michelangelo. This arrogant man who brought his finger to God, and culminated with his daring, the wonder of the Sistine Chapel, was a man who civilized himself wherein through his individual process he civilized the environment. Centuries after these dreams, we know that we have not yet reach God, but rather our delusions of grandeur, and have done with the same clumsiness we stepped on Earth. We are in the 21st century, we enjoy a great technological development, we are surrounded by comfort, we have made progress in the fight against disease, but we have not advanced in the domain of our miseries. If in the 21st century there are countries like Haiti, stranded, with millions of people who do not matter to anyone, who live and die miserably, if that happens, it is not because the world is complicated – and surely it is — but simply because of our very indifference, arrogance and ambition. We do not mind anything.
True, we were shocked with the images on TV news and many countries (i.e. the democratic, because the tyrannical fail to do so) mobilize resources. For a few days, Haiti exists in the retina of the world. But it will take time, the news will be less noticeable, Haiti will no longer be a point of interest and we will forget that we have millions of people abandoned on an ruined island. At the end of the day, why should we change our indifference, if we have always cultivated it with zeal? Of course, this does not fit all, and there are people involved as Doctors Without Borders or religious organizations or volunteers of various kinds, trying to bring some calm to the corners of hell.
That said, I do not talk about solidarity but of collective, structural commitment. If the rich and powerful would do so, Haiti would turn its misfortune. Like many other countries. We have economic and technological capacity. Why do not we go ahead? Because we do not care of the pariah death, the death of those who do not have anything. It does not concern us. We did not make progress to achieve universal justice. We have just moved enough to ensure that the misery of many does not endanger the welfare of some few fellows. Misery is based on that.

Obama’s War

The worst war is the one being fought into our brains.

Obama repeating mistakes of the past in Afghanistan

West is repeating mistakes of the past in Afghanistan

As soon as its terms are acknowledged you can give it for lost. And you have to write it in full: in Europe this war is being considered ever-increasing lost.

It is about the culture war (1) wherein violent actions have a dual persuasive function: intimidate the whole population and transfer responsibility — i.e. guiltiness — to those who act in disagreement with radical Islam, thereby becoming potential targets. The result is that they lead to restraint freedom of expression and censorship. This war has many accomplices, because not only radical Muslims ask for a special status for their religion. Ireland enforced this Jan 1st an anti-blasphemy act which punishes by fine up to € 25,000 those who commit blasphemy publicly. A soldier of this war is the Somali who the Year’s Day attempted assassination — ax and knife in hand — against Kurt Westergard, the Danish cartoonist who published a Muhammad caricature in the Jylland Posten in 2005 — who, since then, is under police protection. Pope, Tony Blair and even George Bush agreed criticizing the cartoons — despite freedom of expression is far better protected in West than in Middle East.

The next battle to fight, waged in view of everybody in the street and in institutions, is not far behind. As the former fight, its identification mark suggests that you are losing it as soon as you accept its existence. The dream of invulnerability can lead to the greatest aberrations. What a hard life will have those who use air transportation! But it happens likewise in trains, buses, subways and even private cars. There is however an inversion of terms in this case. In Europe, for now more familiarized with risk society, the reaction is moderate. In the US, however, where the legend of invulnerability has thrived, even Obama has been incapable to reverse the effects of war on the rule of law and freedoms. The soldier of this war is a Nigerian who tried to blow up the Northwest flight on its arrival to Detroit — from Amsterdam — on Christmas Day. And because of it Guantanamo will remain open. And as a result, imprisoned people without trial will keep on running, as well as secret warrants, eavesdropping without judicial control and everything Bush did at wholesale scale, but now acomplished in retail and with greater care and prevention.

The Culture War of values as shown on a graffiti

Where we are losing the second war at most — the war on values — is inside the third war; the war of real fighters with true clashes, and belligerent general staffs… basically, Obama’s real war. It is a regrettable and revolting war, as any war, but it is more certain and effective. It is waged in secret, without bluster, quietly — although the effects emerge with no little alarm from time to time. Such as, in the recent suicide attack on the CIA base in Afghanistan — a historic setback for the United States who believed getting bin Laden within reach through a double agent when in fact they lost six US agents and one  Jordan’s allied. This action of Al Qaeda is in response to a cyber war through drones, which maintains the CIA in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and has killed at least two dozen of prominent terrorist leaders.

Obama has intensified this kind of war, to the point that some experts say it will replace the current massive presence of troops in the conflict zone that spreads out from Pakistan to Somalia. The CIA has accomplished more than 50 attacks from Predator and Reaper drones all through Obama’ first year at the White House – figures that double those of 2008 with Bush on the stage and surpass the whole activity of the Bush 8 year Presidency. Formally it is about a targeted assassinations program that Bush authorized after another Republican president, Gerald Ford, banished it in 1976. Philip Alston, UN Special Rapporteur on Extrajudicial Executions and law professor at the New York University, believes that such actions may be legal in terms of “just war” when there are no other means to stop or prevent the enemy to go on with its activity and when every precaution is taken to avoid civilian casualties. But this does not appear to be the case because there is no official information and no possibility of judicial or parliamentary control over such actions.

Bush made a package with all those wars, which he called Global War on Terror — some mistook with a war against the Arabs or against Islam. “Invoices” for those errors, increasingly higher, are still coming now. Obama qualifies and distinguishes amongst them: but this does not make him immune to criticism from the right, for his supposed excessive restraint and, from the left, because of his continuity with Bush’s illegal war.

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(1) Have a look on the clash of ideas over here: The Cultural War

The Complex Game of Wrong Impressions – A First Balance on Copenhagen

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Beyond the political and scientific debate, economists make different analysis on a meeting that brought together more than 180 countries whose commitments regularly lacked of consistency: some advocate the growth model through expansion, other propose corrective measures more or less significant.

U.S. and Chinese positions, though contradictory, are no less obvious and essential, since it is impossible to imagine a positive outcome to the climate challenge without the support of both countries.

And what about the help of more than 7,000 million promised by the European Union that seemed initially to account for and optimistic output of the summit?

The rush of numbers is exhausting and often unnecessary. In this case, let us aim at misconceptions…

First: Macro meetings as Kyoto and Copenhagen have a realistic chance of success? Unfortunately, not (not always). In Kyoto, the aim was to limit the effects of the emission of greenhouse gases by 2012: Russia agreed to limit at 33% – in fact it simply did 0% – Spain promised to increase up to 15% – and did so by 54%. We better look after more realistic goals…

Second misconception: China is the leading global polluter. True, in gross terms, false in relative terms. Just remember that each Chinese pollutes four times less than an American. Furthermore, much of China’s pollution is the result of production for developed countries.

US is self-centred and does not make a move. Fascinating misinformation – manipulation? During this time American industry continues to invest in green energy. The Obama plan is a firm commitment to renewable energies, with volumes going from 1 to 20 in contrast to what Europeans planned – the ineffective French stimulus plan, for example. Many U.S. states have long acted individually. And since a decade, the US public opinion has evolved. What is more, American industry and business circles have changed their frame of mind. American employers face two opposing clans: on the one hand, polluters with hard entrenched positions – the powerful coal industry provides over half the energy consumed in this country, so huge interest which one cannot imagine in Europe – and on the other, a group of companies that calls repeatedly the federal government to establish clear standards and set uniform federal marks in order to harmonize practices rather than lead to a patchwork in which the industry – and in fine jobs — cannot develop properly. They also wish to clarify the price of oil in the mid term so as to know what kind of investments they will perform. The inimitable Sarah Palin issued an article in the Washington Post that gives a good idea of the hardness of the debate in the U.S. …

Europe is exemplary. Overall yes, Europe has played the game and has done more than other continents. On the other hand: no. Austria, Italy, Belgium, Holland, Spain have not achieved at all what they promised. And let us speak of Denmark, the summit’s host, which boasts of making 20% of its electricity from wind power, forgetting that 80% comes from highly polluting hydroelectrics.

Transportation segment is the main cause of GHG emissions. False. The main polluter is the production of energy itself. Even worse, agriculture, which in developed countries represents every day a smaller portion of its GDP, is one of the most important sources of CO2 emissions, even greater than the automotive: a cow produces 3.4 tonnes of  CO2 per year, while a usual car produces 1.8 Tn.

Some may point out miracle solutions to survive. i.e. renewable energy, electric car. All it takes to be convinced of the contrary is to recall that those energies and devices represent only 2.5% approx. of global electricity consumption. That consumption is projected to be 10% in 2030 but nothing is less certain. Regarding the electric car, its theoretical part is expected to be of 10% of the fleet in 2020 – the most reasonable analysis expect it to reach 3%

When the true ideas?

Just in case: Would you prefer that your car emits less CO2 or would you rather prefer to lose your job? It is not necessary to go against climate progress to choose the correct check box.

In Iran Power and Opposition Turn More Radical

Iranian officials on Sunday faced a difficult dilemma. If, as announced, they strictly repressed the protests, the risk of dead should further aggravate the fissures that post-election crisis has opened in the Iranian society. If they did not act, the opposition would benefit from the cycle of religious ceremonies — as happened in the months prior to the revolution that ousted the Shah thirty years ago. What is clear is that they could not keep people out into the streets the most important day of their calendar, Ashura , which commemorates the founding myth of Shiite Islam: the death of Hussein, grandson of Muhammad.

Police reportedly detained hundreds of opposition supporters

Often transmitted by mobile on the Internet, the images have turned around the world. Sunday December 27, images showed the violent repression and the determination of the demonstrators in Iran who have transformed the traditional religious commemoration in a day of clashes of rare magnitude.

A targeted killing, a sort of warning to the leader of the protest.

In Tehran there were more demonstrators than penitents. Six months after the opposition accused President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of stealing elections, this pulse tests the upset degree of a good part of the Iranian political system that has led to a political and economic impasse — and in its relations with the world, as well.

And not just in Tehran. Protests in the main cities make clear that the malaise is not limited to urban elites of the capital — the “four rich kids” M Ahmadinejad talked about. The crisis has revealed divisions even among the ruling elites. Former Presidents Rafsanjani and Khatami have shown their support for the opposition. Also leading clerics like Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, whose death a week ago, at age 87, has given fresh momentum to protests by adding young urban activists, older people and further religious men to his followers.

Yesterday, we witnessed tens of thousands of demonstrators in the streets of Tehran and most major cities of Iran: Shiraz, Isfahan, Qazvin, Tabriz and even Qom — the holy city. The videos show live bloody clashes between the multitude and the security forces and militiamen Bassij, sometimes assisted by helicopters, motorcycles and cars on fire. All evoke the dead. The first deceased since the massive protests that had followed the disputed re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad June 12, which had resulted in sixty victims and 4,000 arrests, according to the opposition. This time, police admitted five “accidental” deaths and hundreds of “hooligans” arrested. Demonstrators carry this record to 15 dead. The victims included Ali Moussavi, the nephew of Mir Hossein Moussavi. The former prime minister — and unsuccessful candidate of the reformers in the presidential election in June — denounced a “massive fraud” and launched protests. Six months after the election, and despite of severe repression, the movement goes on. Reformers’ websites as Jaras related — mentioning among others filmmaker Mohsen Makhmalbaf – that Ali Moussavi was killed deliberately, his body being transported and kept in the morgue whereas the family asked to remain discreet.

In Isfahan, the brother of former reformist Interior Minister, Abdullah Nouri, was allegedly beaten in front of his children by militiamen who had publicly threatened him before.

Other prominent government critics were taken to jail. This is the case of Ibrahim Yazdi, the old leader of the Liberation Movement of Iran (a nationalist party tolerated intermittently), arrested at home bed at 3 AM. Or Mehdi Arabshahi, the secretary of the largest student organization, Tahkim varDate (Consolidation of Unity), arrested in Tehran. Just as three other closest associates of Mr. Moussavi.

Curfew was introduced in Najafabad, the hometown of the great dissident Ayatollah Montazeri, the figurehead of the religious dispute, with burial under surveillance has led protests against the regime last week.

Meanwhile, the castling of the fundamentalists’ bunker who control the power centers is helping to radicalize protesters.

Prevent too great a radicalization.

Faced with what may seem like a further escalation of repression, voices were raised to prevent too great a radicalization of the protest movement. Ezatollah Sahabi, the leader of a nationalist group of religious appeals to “moderate” not to play in the hands of government: “Be careful not to rush into violence. They are ready — he writes in essence — to kill one million people if necessary.”

Supporters of Mousavi protested the disputed election result in Tehran for nearly two months

However, in the opinion of many analysts and witnesses demonstrators turn radical. Their slogans were aimed very hard not this time at Ahmadinejad, but at the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The guide was also compared to the Caliph Yazid , responsible for the death of Imam Hussein at the battle of Karbala, which commemorates the mourning of Ashura. What is more, without really being armed, many demonstrators have erected barricades in some streets of Tehran, throwing stones at police or fire Bassidji motorcycles — forefront outfielders of repression during the riots in the street.

It appears that the hardline Basij militias were afraid this time. The roles were reversed:  turmoil seemed turn them mad with rage. The power has, indeed, made mistakes, in the opinion of Iranian analysts. The first was probably, not having respected the grief at the death of Ayatollah Montazeri. His supporters have been harassed, those who paid tribute prevented sometimes do. In this, the authority has lost its religious and popular credibility.

The second mistake was to prevent former reformist President Mohammad Khatami to deliver a speech on Saturday. Khatami was chosen to speak at Jamaran, northern Tehran, where Ayatollah Khomeini had lived. A highly symbolic place in these troubled times where government and opposition are fighting the legacy of the founder of the Islamic Republic. But the police did not comply. People come to hear the speeches, were forcibly confined in the mosque, others asked to disperse. This symbolic battle has also been lost by the regime. Some protesters shouted “Khomeini, if you lived, you’d be with us! “…”

Should we expect a further strengthening of repression? The event-repression cycle seems to be now engaged. Ahmadinejad’s government is going to play tight in the coming weeks if it does not want to contribute growing the protest.

Government refusal to engage dialogue with the opposition — as been suggested by some moderate conservatives — has destroyed all the bridges for reconciliation. Demonstrators are no longer calling for repeating elections (the celebrated “where’s my vote?), but the end of the Islamic system. Further problems in perspective…

Sources: NY Times/El Pais/Le Monde/AFP

>>Related Posts: The Political Importance of the Power of Images to Reveal Government Abuse

A New Definition of Misery

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A lesson from the history of a new “misery index,” created by Pierre Cailleteau, an economist and sovereign risk analyst at Moody’s.

The unfortunate leader in that misery index is Spain

The international ratings agency has ranked Spain as top of its Misery Index — a metric which adds a country’s fiscal deficit and the unemployment rate — meanwhile UK gets a sixth ranking.

Spain, is followed by Latvia, Lithuania, Ireland, Greece and the UK. The US is eighth — just after Iceland. France, is badly coming back to the mid 70s and 90s funest period.

Czech Republic, Italy and Germany were forecast to be the least miserable.

In fact, Moody’s has compiled a 1970s-style ‘Misery’ index. But instead of showing inflation and unemployment rates, it shows the fiscal deficit and the unemployment rate. The original “misery index”  was invented by the economist Arthur Okun in the 1970’s. Okun had served as a member of President Lyndon Johnson’s Council of Economic Advisers and a professor at Yale. That index came to symbolize stagflation, a significant problem of the 1970s, when consumer prices continued to rise even as economies stagnated and unemployment rose.

And now it makes no sense to talk about inflation as much of the world in which we live is suffering deflation, the new misery index incorporates the public deficit as an indicator of collective misery.

This fact shows that one of the biggest errors of the current economic model over the past thirty years, was taking the dogma of inflation as the central focus of economic policy. Financial circles just looked at the current inflation rate (goods and services), but did not see the creeping inflation of properties and real estate that created the bubble.  Now, high unemployment and high debt levels are putting the economic policy makers faced with the dilemma of an emergency stimulus plan but budgetary realities that cannot afford it.

Is Obama’s Smart Diplomacy Substandard?

In Afghanistan, the military solution is like a bottomless pit: just look at the affirmative accents of former president Bush and right now president Obama (“We must finish the job”). What does the US public opinion ponder while Obama is willing to strengthen the conventional forces ?

Yet after his first year, and after his speech of Dec 1st, let us consider President Obama’s general guidelines.

The fall of the Berlin Wall has highlighted the decisive character of the Afghan adventure among the causes of the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Red Army was well and truly stuck on this theater of operations – deemed dangerous. Could it also become fatal to Obama’s America?

Barak Obama tried one week ago to convince the US opinion, more and more reluctant to increase to 100 000 the number of U.S. soldiers engaged in war against the Taliban. Therefore the use of force is preferred, with a deadline.

Will this voluntarism shut up the critics who, since taking office, accuse Obama of being a “weak president”, a new Jimmy Carter, who will eventually be run by those he tries to coax? These critics point out that the “smart diplomacy” of the new Democratic administration has, so far, no notorious  success, meanwhile his hand extended policy toward the traditional adversaries of America remains desperately unrequited. Neither Iran nor North Korea have been sensitive to calls for restraint. In the Middle East, American diplomacy seems without real outlets on a situation which deteriorates every day. And coming back from China – his main partner now – the president returned empty-handed: no revaluation of the yuan, inflexibility on climate policy, and  human rights totally muted.

Of course, it is too early to decide on a foreign policy that is yet preparing the ground for milestones…

The latest false move from Obama, a step towards the militarization of US foreign policy.

It was surprising – and not only in US – to survey television reports whereas in his recent visit to several Asian countries, President Obama prompted a solemn bow before the Emperor of Japan. It is hard to believe that Obama – or anyone from his entourage –could ever consider the Emperor as Heaven Sent when he is just a simple constitutional symbol of the Japanese nation. I do not remember Obama giving such unnecessary signs of respect to other dignitaries – who are also symbols of their respective sovereignties.

For some critics of Obama’s policy in Afghanistan, the speech meaning through the president finally defined his strategy to follow on that troubled country, was another sign of unjustified respect and reverence, but this time to the US military institution and its senior executives. Not only because he chose to do so before the select audience of the Military Academy at West Point instead of the Oval Office. The worst and most ominous precedent of this fact is that also on the same stage, and before a similar audience, his predecessor in the White House presented seven years ago the disastrous strategy of “preventive war” that blazed a trail of blood and destruction across the world. Let us say, in defense of Bush and against Obama, that the first delivered his speech during the military graduation ceremony of the new officers, as it seems to be usual in West Point, while Obama has done so for no particular reason, which is still more shocking.

It is not about criticizing here, once again, the major strategic error which consists to expect winning a war and, secondly, to establish in advance the time frame in which the victorious troops return home. One cannot satisfy both the desires of the people, tired of an endless war that, the lower social strata are suffering especially, and some military commanders who want to achieve all the signs of victory and none of the defeat – as the shameful retreat from Saigon who still lives in the minds of many Americans. Therefore, the date of July 2011 as the scheduled move back is an empty gesture as the withdrawal of the occupation troops will take place just when possible. Just as the closure of Guantanamo, announced later this year and unenforceable to date.

The outcome is that over the next six months 30,000 new US troops will arrive in Afghanistan, i.e. in less than two years the US military contingent will triple, reaching about 100,000. If we add up the 38,000 NATO (to increase by about 7,000), the military deployment in Afghanistan will exceed that of the USSR in the eighties, which contributed to the final disintegration of the Soviet superpower. Will Obama get what the former Soviet Kremlin could not achieve?

But there is another problem. In the aforementioned speech Obama literally said:

“As commander-in-chief, I have determined that it is in our vital national interest to send an additional 30,000 US troops to Afghanistan. After 18 months, our troops will begin to come home. These are the resources that we need to seize the initiative, while building the Afghan capacity that can allow for a responsible transition of our forces out of Afghanistan.”

What is and on what terms you define a “responsible transition”? When will the armed and security forces of Afghanistan be operative as to replace foreign troops of occupation? That’s not up to the White House nor NATO. Uncertainty is the same as before the speech delivery because the objectives of this war are still not clearly defined.

“I make this decision because I am convinced that our security is at stake in Afghanistan and Pakistan,” Obama said. “This is the epicenter of the violent extremism practiced by al-Qaida. It is from here that we were attacked on 9/11, and it is from here that new attacks are being plotted as I speak.”

President Barak Obama chose not to recall that his predecessor in the White House was the true catalyst for the spread of terrorism in these and other countries, with his aberrant “preventive war on terror”.

Even if it seems simplistic, it looks as if Obama gets rid of the straight weight on Afghanistan, putting it on the shoulders of the Pentagon and NATO, to pursue other more immediate and politically profitable concerns. A step forward in the usual militarization of US foreign policy, that Obama does not seem determined to change.

The Impact of Economic Crisis on Poverty in Latin America

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The report “Social Panorama of Latin America 2009″, presented by the Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC), projected that about 9 million people fall into poverty, the 2009 product of the economic crisis, which means an increase of 1.1% over the 2008. This figure marks a reversal in the trend shown in the period 2002 to 2008, representing 25% of the total population that had escaped poverty.

The current global crisis will cause nine million people in the region to fall in poverty this year, according to the ECLAC report Social Panorama of Latin America 2009, released November 19.

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on special tabulations of national household surveys.
a/ Estimates for 18 countries in the region plus Haiti. The numbers on the top part of the bars represent the percentage and total number of people living in poverty (poor and indigent).

In the study, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean estimates that poverty in the region will increase by 1.1% and indigence by 0.8% with regard to 2008. Thus, people living in poverty will reach 189 million by the end of 2009 (34.1% of the population), compared to 180 million in 2008. Also, indigence will reach 76 million (13.7% of the population), up from the 71 million last year.

These numbers depart from the trend towards poverty reduction until now prevalent in the region. The nine million poor and indigent represent almost a fourth of the population that had already overcome poverty between 2002 and 2008 (41 million people), due to greater economic growth, the expansion of social spending, the demographic bonus and better income distribution.

The study was presented today by ECLAC Executive Secretary Alicia Bárcena, who stressed the urgency that the region develop a new long-term social protection system.

“We can’t say that all that was attained between 2002 and 2008 has been lost. It is not a lost period. However, the rise in poverty calls us to action: we need to rethink social protection programmes with a long-term, strategic perspective and measures that make the most of human capital and protect the income of vulnerable families and groups,” she said.

The projected increase in poverty for 2009 will delay the compliance of the first Millennium Development Goal of eradicating extreme poverty and hunger by 2015: the 85% of progress on this goal in the region in 2008 will drop to 78% by the end of 2009.

Some countries may experiment a greater increase in poverty than the regional average, such as Mexico, due to lower GDP and deteriorating employment and salaries.

The current crisis will nevertheless have less impact on regional poverty than prior crises, such as the “Mexican crisis” in 1995, the “Asian crisis” in 1998-2000 and the Argentinean and “dot.com crisis” in 2001 and 2002. For now, the region has been able to maintain the purchasing power of salaries and low inflation.

Income distribution in the region improved significantly from 2002 to 2008. During that period, inequality improved in seven of the 18 countries included in the study and worsened in only three.

Governments in the region have made great efforts to increase social spending. Between 1990 and 2007, public social expenditures per capita rose from 43% to 60% of average total public expenditures in Latin America.

“This shows that it is possible to grow and redistribute, expand social spending and be fiscally prudent to significantly improve living conditions of the population. Latin America is not condemned to be poor or unjust,” stated Bárcena.

For the future, ECLAC suggests reforming social protection systems and adopting both urgent short-term measures as well as strategic long-term ones. In doing so, governments should avoid fiscal irresponsibility and rigid labour markets, increase taxes progressively, redistribute social spending and extend coverage of social services.

Likewise, ECLAC recommends strengthening government assistance transfer programmes, among them conditional transfer programmes (CTPs). There are CTPs in place in 17 countries in the region, encompassing over 100 million people; that is equivalent to more than half the population living in poverty in Latin America.

ECLAC proposes a set of measures as a guide for countries to offset these results:

The United States and the Human Rights Council

The hopes quickly went on smoke at the end of the 12th session marking the official attendance of the United States to the Human Rights Council in Geneva.

H. Cartier-Bresson · Séville, 1933. © Cartier-Bresson & Magnum

H. Cartier-Bresson · Séville, 1933. © Cartier-Bresson & Magnum

When the United States announced their candidacy to the Human Rights Council earlier this year, many had welcomed the decision with the hope that some cases completely blocked under the government of George W. Bush could finally move forward, including those involving Israel, Gaza and the occupied Palestinian Territories. But hope quickly went up in smoke at the end of the twelfth session, which marked the United States official entry to the HR Council. The US administration had sent specially from Washington Michael Posner, Assistant Secretary for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor. He defines America’s standing in the council:

We see our role as broadly engaged in a range of issues. Our intention is to address all issues and suggest ways to advance the Council over its program to help the greatest number. We are in new relationships, new alliances. For example, we worked with Egypt on a resolution on freedom of expression that resolves disputes that we had. The Council needs this type of exchange. Our intention is to apply universal principles to everyone, including ourselves. We know that the US must lead by example in its own affairs and participate actively in the Council. Our situation of human rights will be reviewed next year with the procedure of Universal Periodic Review, and we encourage other countries to do likewise.[1]

The intentions were initially positive but Americans have widely criticized the Goldstone report on Gaza and US pressure has resulted to postpone the vote on the resolution at the next session in March 2010. The recommendation of the Goldstone mission to seize the International Criminal Court if no independent investigation is conducted within six months scared off Israel.

In turn, the US, who refused to join the ICC, might be revising its position:

We are currently reviewing our policy regarding the ICC and the ratification of certain conventions, like the Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, which could pose a challenge for the USA. It’s a fresh start. And we will consider all treaties this way. I think this will be a long process. No doubt, priority will be done to the elimination of discrimination against women. We will create a new dynamic.[1]

But these are all political considerations that have taken hold in the Human Rights Council, although many NGOs have welcomed the opening created by the joint resolution between the US and Egypt on freedom of expression. Other resolutions which have been voted are at least as important as those on the Aboriginal peoples, the right to truth, the effects of toxic chemicals on human rights or access to care.

On the merits, the important thing for Fred Abrahams, senior researcher for HRW on the Middle East, is the implicit message by the reaction of the USA, Israel and the European Union – the latter very discreet on the Goldstone report:

If Europe and the US want to promote justice, for example in Africa, they must apply equally the concept of justice to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Otherwise, there will always be a double standard.

The Human Rights Council is criticised for its too political positions at the expense of serious violations of human rights situations. The United States have disappointed by their position on the report on Gaza. They will be very expected for the next March session of the Human Rights Council.

Related Posts: The Spanish Law of Universal Jurisdiction, now in Brackets?

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[1] Véronique Gaymard, RFI – Chronique des droits de l’homme, Paris 3 oct. 2009

The Invisible Human: A World Without Us

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What if an asteroid hit the Earth and humanity suddenly ceased to exist? How would the Earth survive or thrive without us?

Human bustle is like footsteps in the sand. Everything we do leaves a spot – whether it’s making a cup of tea, switching on a light button, or using a computer. All these apparently ordinary and unexciting duties require energy, which often adds heating gases to our atmosphere and increases our waste. As the human population grows, the Earth is struggling to carry our weight.

In this Earth beat, have a look on Alan Weisman’s site and book The World Without Us and imagine how natural and built environments would look if we disappeared.

People probably won’t be disappearing anytime soon, but possibly there is way we can make ourselves invisible. Take it from Colin Beavan, who calls himself the No Impact Man. He spent an entire year trying not just to lessen his environmental footprint, but erase it all together.

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The day Iniesta shut Cristiano Ronaldo

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In the catechism of good FC Barcelona supporters, the first commandment is to win Madrid, anywhere, even on the bus.

Not my habit to talk about football on this blog. But if it comes to Barça – and especially of a classic derby with Real Madrid – everything changes. « A Barca-Madrid is the top-ten of pleasure », says La Vanguardia. And that’s quite right.
Beyond the sporting merits of Messi and Guardiola and the undeniable quality of Madrid, there is a fundamental difference between the teams. The Catalans are just that: a team and the meringues ‘just’ a sum of individuals (built-through a mass of money).

That Barça is more than a club, we all know. But we must remember, as the former president of FC Barcelona Agustí Montal does in an meaty interview in La Vanguardia, that the club is a fundamental hallmark  all throughout Catalonia and in this globalized world, this team represents, alongside sporting excellence, some way of understanding life getting to unite altogether in the same ideal: Empathy without violence or fanaticism. In front, a proud Madrid, with bright moments, but not much more:

Iniesta vs. Ronaldo, the typology opposes both characters, one silent, hieratic, cautious, almost humble, the other arrogant, spoiled, tough guy, and uploaded in the dollar, as any player had never been shaped.

Iniesta is probably a better player than Ronaldo. Time will tell.

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The Financial Bubble is Ready

Stanley Kubrick’s Dr. Strangelove [ The music is We'll Meet Again by Vera Lynn]

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Dubai’s House of Cards
Dubai is the leading exponent of housing bubbles that have occurred worldwide.  Eccentricity of management has turned a city in the middle of the desert in a field full of hotels and skyscrapers. It was a time – the golden era – when anything was little for the Emirate.

But the crisis has beaten hard Dubai. Works have stopped and credit flow is dead blocked. Up to the point that, yesterday the state holding announced a moratorium on payment of $ 4 billion debt – the same holding that built the famous Jumeira Palm Island. This did not sit well with international markets.

The problem is that the Emirate owes $ 80 billion and markets begin to have doubts about its solvency. As soon as the moratorium on debt payment was announced markets felt down. The worst financial crisis could recur. But instead of banks’ cessation of payments we may now witness States’ suspension of payments.

Speculative Bubble Emerging
Meanwhile, in another part of the planet – the United States – the policy of the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates near zero is fuelling a wave of speculative capital that can initiate the next crisis. Many warn that a new bubble is brewing, and several specialists see in this quantitative easing an equivalent outcome Japan had for its crisis of the early 90s. Low Japanese interest rates did contribute definitely to the outbreak of the Asian crisis in 1997.

Ben Bernanke, an academic on the Great Depression, monitored the most massive injection of liquidity into the world’s largest economy, committing himself not to make the mistake of the 30s when the Fed officials pursued a strict and rigorous monetary policy that only aggravate the crisis further enough. The lack of available money in 1930 is regularly considered the reason why the crisis lengthened for a decade. The little response to current liquidity injections shows that the situation is all but comforting and that new limits of monetary policy may further alter the global imbalances that the crisis left uncovered.

One of these speculation operations is the so-called carry trade; investors borrow in $ (0%) headed for invest in other currencies that offer higher interest rates such as Australia, Brazil and New Zealand. Much of the flow in the capital markets moves ahead that direction. Hence the importance that Asian and Oceania assets are acquiring versus Europe and US assets. Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore assets are rising to levels that are incompatible with the reality that replicates the real estate bubble of US in the 90s and Japan in the 80s – when the Imperial Palace Gardens in Tokyo came to cost more than the entire US state of Washington.

Despite this, former Fed Governor Frederick Mishkin assumed that there is no evidence that a speculative bubble is emerging, since not all bubbles present risks to the economy. Mishkin split good from bad bubbles. The former are instigate by a credit boom, whereas expectations lead to increased demand, generating a rise in asset prices, encouraging lending against those assets and positive feedbacks cycle until it explodes.

The second category of bubbles what Mishkin calls “pure irrational exuberance bubble” is less harmful because there is no credit boom, and if no credit boom occurs the bursting of the bubble can not damage the system – e.g. the bubble in technology in the ’90s and the dotcom’s of 2000, had no global impact. For Myshkin the rise of the credit stirs the bubbles. Now, there is no credit boom in small scale. But bubble is building on the macro scale of speculative capitals, those who move billions of dollars of pension funds, the very same that play in the stock market or speculate on the gold and oil at the expense of the dollar. And at macro levels, everything where bubbles get involved presage awful signs for the economy. Otherwise, it’s like thinking that a bomb may have some positive effect.

Future generations’ fate is at stake in Copenhagen

Negotiators will try to reach a political compromise on fighting climate change in Copenhagen

Negotiators will try to reach a political compromise on fighting climate change in Copenhagen. Countries including the United States are backing away from commitments made two years ago to fight climate change.

Only globally coordinated international law that is binding and can be enforced through sanctions when violated is capable of possibly preventing Greenland’s ice sheet from significantly melting, semi-arid regions from drying to the point where millions of people are forced to flee and extreme weather conditions from a state of irreversible damage even wealthy countries’ economic powers.

If we continue to build coal-fired power plants and increase our use of gasoline and diesel vehicles, then we will literally be burning up many people’s futures. Approximately half of the carbon dioxide generated by that exhaust will remain in the atmosphere for centuries to come, and will continue to accumulate – unless we reduce output by at least 50 percent – and will raise temperatures in the lower atmosphere, the surface of the Earth and gradually the inner-regions of the ocean to levels which homo-sapiens have never experienced.

Only after a delay of decades will the full level of warming be reached, which will only be complete after centuries. Sea levels will continue to rise for centuries even without further warming of surface temperatures.

Humanity has never had to solve a long-term problem such as this, which is why our present political infrastructure is of little use for this phenomenal task. We need global domestic policies such as those of the European Union that already exist for a small portion of the international community.

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Carry out the polluter-pays principle

Burning coal is like burning people's futures

As yet, every country deals with the external effects of supplying energy in its own ways. Nearly all countries go so far as to promote global warming by reducing the prices of all or some fossil fuels for all or some portions of their populations, and they saddle succeeding generations or the general public – but not the emitters – with external effects such as health costs, air pollution or climate damage. Each year, direct or indirect subsidies account by approximation for 300 billion Euros ($450 billion) worldwide. Nearly all humans pay nothing for the emission of hazardous substances such as illness-causing diesel soot, and fainthearted European emissions trading of carbon dioxide is still far removed from an actual internalization of such external effects.

In Germany a kilowatt hour of electricity generated by a black coal-fired plant should cost 7 euro cents more with adherence to all environmental costs and 8.9 euro cents in the case of brown coal, which means that wind power, with an electricity-compensation price of 8.5 euro cents today, would already be cheaper than energy generated by brown coal. All the same, the large electricity distributors continue to speak of subsidizing renewable energy sources and most citizens parrot what they say.

Energy providers in Europe would only be acceptable choices as suppliers if their portfolios included a portion of renewable energy sources larger than the overall average. At much less than 2 percent, they lie miles beneath today’s average of 11 percent of energy coming from renewable sources.

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What would a Copenhagen Protocol a success?

First of all, when it includes binding and stronger emissions reductions for all industrialized countries by 2020 of at least 25 percent measured against the output of emissions in 1990.

Second, if the integration of countries with emerging markets – which encompass about half of all humans and in several of which the per-capita emission level is rapidly approaching our own – were to succeed along with initial reduction measures through partial financial compensation of their reduction and adaptation measures through global emissions trading amongst industrialized countries.

Third, if industrialized countries give financial support for measures to adapt to the changing climate to particularly affected developing nations.

All of the above was already covered in the declaration of the 13th United Nations Climate Change Conference on Bali.

Industrialized nations should help emerging countries adapt to climate change

But now several countries are hesitating, including the United States. Its new president is being limited by the long-term effects of erroneous politics led by a public and its representatives who are so unwilling to see the facts that the average US citizen will remain the front-runner when it comes to emissions for a long time to come.

Fourth, I would like to see a commitment to a long-term objective of emission equality, recognition of the equal rights of every human to produce emissions, and therefore much stronger emissions reductions for strong emitters such as the United States and the United Arab Emirates as a precondition for global emissions trade – adherence to the polluter-pays principle. Emissions would cost money and the market would initiate a rapid alteration to the energy supply system. We would only need a five-thousandth of the potential energy of the sun, and every country would have the bulk of its energy resources (sun, wind, water) within its borders. The conflicts connected to the appropriation of oil and gas would be things of the past.

But even should this succeed, coming generations will still have to carry the burden because we did not undertake the comparatively marginal effort of emissions reduction as compared to the cost of adaptation. This is in part because we did not initially know about the issue, and then nearly all of us suppressed it, and in part we still do not want to recognize it.

Should nothing be accomplished in Copenhagen, the possibility that in the 22nd century many cities with millions of inhabitants on weakly protected coastlines will further sink rapidly increases. Even before that occurs, millions of people will have been displaced from regions of industrialized nations distressed by water.

Bank Secrecy: the Key to International Transparency

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Bank secrecy and tax havens have now become a key factor for international transparency. Their linking to corruption and money-laundering has been uncovered by the financial crisis. This is one of the reasons why developed countries must tackle corruption internationally, a curse that uses secrecy to screen dirty money transfers. In this interactive map you can have a look on the transparency level in 180 countries surveyed and here is the index.

While New Zealand, Denmark and Singapore top the list of the most transparent countries in the world according to this survey of « perception of corruption », Spain lost four places in the ranking (28th to 32nd), France gets back from 23rd to 24th position, UK move back one place, same as US – demonstrating that the perception of corruption has risen. In the presentation at its headquarters in Berlin, the organization has emphasized the fight against tax havens noting that « there must be no safe haven for corrupt money ». Like every year, countries at war are perceived as the most corrupt, with Afghanistan and Somalia as the worst two.

In Latin America, Venezuela is one of the world’s most corrupt countries, ranking 162, while Chile and Uruguay are located as the least corrupt sharing 25th place, followed by Costa Rica (43) and Cuba (61). Brazil shares with Colombia and Peru where 75, Mexico shares the 89 with Rwanda and Argentina is 106. China is located in 79th.

Since 1955, the organization publishes annually an index of perceptions of corruption ranging from a score of ‘10’ for a country perceived as « transparent » to ‘0’ for one seen as « corrupt. » Transparency International does not spare criticism of industrialized countries in a time when governments attempt to revive the economy by injecting a huge mass of public capital on growth aid programs.

The first defendant is bank secrecy « affecting efforts to fight corruption and recover stolen assets”. In that sense, IT downplays its own index, indicating that the problem of banking secrecy concerns « many countries that lead the classification », such as Switzerland in fifth place and Luxembourg on the 14th. So, the report points that

« The money derived from corruption should not be able to find refuge areas. It’s time to end the excuses.»

As for the great revival plans launched by the industrialized countries, Transparency International warns its perverse effects.

« When you spend a lot of public money very quickly and the authorities that control programs are being overwhelmed, the risk of corruption increases. It is a major risk factor », said the president of Transparency in Germany, Sylvia Schenck.

One thing is clear under current circumstances: the existence of tax havens made easier the crisis to strengthen; hence, the obligation to besiege these sources of corruption.

Does Russia Really Want to Resume Death Penalty?

As 2009 comes to an end, the clock is ticking for Russia’s constitutional court to reach a decision on capital punishment. The moratorium on the death penalty is currently due to expire with the dawning of the New Year.

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A shot to the head was how Russia used to deal with violent crime

It’s a problematic issue, or so the opinion polls would suggest. Recent surveys say that up to 80 percent of Russians are in favor of a return to state-ordered execution, a practice which has been kept at bay for the past decade by a legally-binding document.

The 1999 moratorium on the death penalty was a condition for Russia to become a member of the Council of Europe. And although the Council would have preferred complete abolition, it agreed to the suspension while waiting for Moscow to commit ratifying a protocol which would completely proscribe capital punishment. But this, the Russian Federation has failed to do so far.

What’s more, the constitutional court attached a condition of its own to the moratorium. It stated that no tribunal in Russia would be allowed to hand down a death sentence until such time as jury trial – abolished in 1917 by the Bolsheviks – had been introduced in all regions of the federation.

With Chechnya, which is currently the only remaining republic not to use jurors, on the edge to adopt the practice in a few weeks time, Russia has a decision to make. It can go for extend the moratorium, reintroduce the death penalty or do away with it once and for all.

Mixed opinions

Which way the court will decide is anything but clear. Although many officials and experts addressing the hearings earlier this week spoke out against a resumption of judicial killings, some made cases in favor.

The Ria Novosti news agency reported Communist lawmaker Vadim Solovyav as saying the abolition of capital punishment could “contribute to the growth of criminality in Russia.” And he is not the only one to think that way.

But that line of argument holds little sway with the abolitionists. Friedericke Behr, Amnesty International researcher on Russia said such thinking is poorly-documented: “Research in many countries has shown that having a death penalty makes no difference to crime rates.”

Any decision to reintroduce the death penalty will not go down well in Strasbourg

Any decision to reintroduce the death penalty will not go down well in Strasbourg

Even so, President Dmitry Medvedev does not appear to be in a hurry to do away with it. His representative to the constitutional court, Mikhail Krotov, said the Kremlin supported “a stage-by-stage abolition of capital punishment.”

Exactly what that means is unlikely to be revealed before the court rules afresh in the coming weeks. But the pure fact that such masked statements are being thrown about is cause enough for concern, says Allison Gill, Director of Human Rights Watch Russia.

“The signal is that Russia is still holding back from putting itself in with the requirements of the Council of Europe,” Gill says. And that, she believes, stems from a reflex among Russian policy-makers to want to sign up to international and European institutions without wanting to fully commit to them. “I think there is an instinct on the part of certain Russian politicians to maintain a position of Russian exceptionalism,” she said.

Different is not always good

Only being different on this particular issue could have substantial implications for Moscow’s relationship with the Council of Europe. Russia is the only country which has not ratified protocol 6 – the abolition of the death penalty – and has frequently cited public opinion as the reason.

But in a country not renowned for curving to public pressure, such reasoning doesn’t really echo. “If the government has a political will to abolish the death penalty,” Gill said, “they could make a convincing case to the Russian public.”

At present the polls claim one in eight Russians would back the eye-for-an-eye way of thinking. Yet Friederike Behr says surveys on capital punishment are often manipulated from the outset.

“It’s all in the way you ask the questions,” she said, adding that the mention of publicly exposed vicious crime motivates the public to grant pollsters the kind of statistics they have been publishing in the past weeks.

Paradox polls

Russian police fail to inspire a sense of security in the population

Russian police fail to inspire a sense of security in the population

Allison Gill agrees that such surveys cannot be taken as gospel, not least because the same public that flies the flag for state-ordered execution is deeply critical of the system which passes the sentences.

“On the one hand, Russians might be in the majority pro-death penalty, but on the other hand they also mistrust their own law enforcement system and their courts,” Gill said. “They don’t think they’re going to get a fair hearing.”

And some clearly don’t. As Behr points out, Russia has got it wrong on many occasions. “People have been sentenced to death and have been executed and then found to be not guilty,” she said. “There are people here who were on death row when the moratorium was introduced and who were then released later on because they were found to be innocent.”

It’s the age-old argument which applies to any state that still sentences its criminals to death, but it seems particularly pertinent in a country where so many people have so little faith in the justice system. As Allison Gill asks “how can that justice system be responsible for handing out the ultimate penalty?”

(Sources: RIA Novosti, Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch)

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South is the First Victim of Global Warming

Several surveys confirm that poor countries will be the first victims of climate change, even if, being low emitters of greenhouse gases, they are less responsible.


cc_report_mapA report published early September 2009 by Maplecroft –  a British cabinet expertise on global risks – shows that the most vulnerable countries to global warming are Somalia, Haiti, Afghanistan and Sierra Leone. Twenty-two of the 28 countries exposed to “extreme risk” are located in sub-Saharan Africa.

In the meantime, the Asian Development Bank presented in Manila the results of a conclusive report: melting of Himalayan glaciers threatens the food security and water availability of 1.6 billion inhabitants of South Asia. In New York, Rob Vos, director of the UN  Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), ruled that ” If we do not reduce significantly GHG emissions, the damage to the [economies of] poor countries as a percentage of GDP[ gross domestic product] will be up more than ten times greater than in the United States and most other developed countries ” [1] . Mr. Vos commented on the report by his department. According to the conclusions, investments should be done every year in climate change mitigation and adaptation to its effects by 1 % of world’s GDP, i.e. more than 500 billion dollars.

A few months earlier, in May 2009, the United Nations had issued a report about the international strategy on risk reduction -launched in 2000. The document operates the first synthesis of knowledge about natural disasters that have occurred between 1975 and 2008. Even if he admits the document is not exhaustive, the text nevertheless represents a unique body of knowledge.

Between 1975 and 2008, 8.866 disasters have killed 2.284.000. Regarding flooding, the risk of death increased by 13% between 1990 and 2007. The picture is not, if we dare say, equally catastrophic. The absolute number of human or economic losses increases throughout the period, but it remains proportionately stable because of demographic and global GDP growth.

But according to UN experts, the situation would deteriorate because of climate change and ecosystems degradation. The latter is a factor too often ignored. Albeit not apple to apples, ecosystems manage to cushion the impact of natural disasters. Regarding climate change, it will increase the risk of disasters. The vulnerability of populations is one of the other factors that accentuate the risks. Action by Governments (earthquake standards, etc.) becomes crucial: Japan and the Philippines suffer roughly the same number of typhoons, but they cause 17 times more deaths in the Philippines than in Japan.

Have a look on Mr. Rob Vos’ press conference here enclosed:

[1] 2009 World Economic and Social Survey: Promoting Development, Saving the Planet.

Sustainable Cities for Freedom and Environment (3)

The city and its operation

Previous articles outlined the way to configure cities in order they become sustainable or not. Sustainability depends on the city functionality itself as well – the aim of this third article.

gcahs_footer_bannerAdam Smith in his invisible hand hypothesis stated that market optimizes the distribution, enabling better allocation of resources without public intervention. It can also operate by creating unwanted situations to market players (cases of monopoly, cartels, lack of coordination, etc.) and then worsening the social scene.

For instance, the decision to travel by private car instead of using public transport can outcome the worst case scenario. In this direction, several investigations have revealed that it would take less to London bus users – as in any other city – than motorists to move from one place to another if there were less cars. Hence the idea of Mayor Livingston of an expensive access to London downtown by private car in order to provide greater flexibility to surface and underground public transport.

Urban planning is therefore absolutely essential for coexistence and progress. Consequently, European citizens from the early nineteenth century claimed to eliminate obstacles (walls down!). They claimed broaden their cities, which became progressively constrained by sea, hills, and old walls – now absolutely unnecessary, with severe communication problems, crowding and hygiene.

In this context, it was clear to Ildefonso Cerdà when designing the Eixample (urban expansion) of Barcelona that the city should be open, cosmopolitan, outside connected by well done road and rail networks… But above all, it had to be habitable for citizens. The city would grow in small islands: city blocks chamfered, with large inner garden patios, thus uniting the best of countryside life with the advantages of the city. Even then, many Barcelonans turned these courtyards into dedicated warehouses, small factories, and even buildings.

The Cerdà’s pioneering urban planning (1860) through areas, gardens and building expansions – quite different from the internal reform of Haussmann (1852) in Paris – is our daily bread. Managements of urban municipalities generally deal with this responsibility. They have to operate with long-term vision – avoiding short-termism that under-sizes capabilities and services with serious further quicken consequences. In this direction, planning must address a number of priority issues on water, air, noise, energy, waste, health, housing, and transportation.

Cleaner Water
Human intervention in water availability has quantity and quality implications as water used in cities floods back to environment, thus closing a cycle already enforced. Thus, sewage without any treatment, returning to their natural environment, creates serious pollution of rivers and aquifers. To avoid such an issue, the European Water Charter (1968) marked a series of objectives that have been largely completed in the EU-15 – while it remains outstanding work in some of the new 27 Member States of the Union.

In addition, water consumption has to be rationalized: in most large cities, a cubic meter of clean water is less expensive than a Coke at a bar, then increasing produced waste. Consequently, it is essential to charge water waste, starting with a low prices block about 60 liters a day – subsequently changing basic allowance – and then becoming gradually more expensive.

Air
The topic is most evident in cities where sustainability is not shining for its excellence. The most valuable asset – what we breathe 24 hours a day – is consumed in very inadequate conditions. The air of London in the mid 1950s, with frequent smog waves, became suffocating. Following these situations a clean air policy arose, with the first laws, specifically British, in 1955. European Countries came after with further regulation mechanisms.

In summary, the most essential is to ensure clean air, with sensors networking and a very long series of measures that would not exceed the allowable cap, forcing the phasing out of most harmful emission sources.

Noise
Everyone agrees – starting with psychologists and psychiatrists – that noise is one of the environmental factors that affect most the quality of life. From small discomforts, more or less anecdotal, to levels of irreversible disorders in the human mind.

Definition of noise is well known:

“The sound, or set of sounds that are perceived by human beings, and that alter the acoustical medium within they normally move.”

…with the additional peculiarity that everything depends on the inevitability of impact also. Regarding the latter, a noise is obliged to be heeded, and even foreseeable at the time – as when a summer storm occurs, or when the passage of a train at a fixed time takes place, or when children voices arise from the playground in the courtyard of a school near you – and then the sound waves seem justified, and the trouble is diluted. Not at all when the roar of an uncontrolled neighbor turntable in its 50 watts comes to you, or when it deals with crying on Friday night in usually quiet streets, on these occasions everything just become the most detestable.

Among the most aggressive acoustic dealings, the continuous traffic of suburban highway (along with hundreds of miles of noise barriers) should be condemned – and what about major arteries within metropolitan area, and even in the formerly quiet streets in ancient downtowns?  In these ways, some motorists “do their best” traveling at full speed – as if they were in Silverstone. And it is certainly no less remarkable ambulances, day or night roistering circulating, carrying patients or not, whose sirens wailing penetrate your eardrums at completely unnecessary noise levels.

But most of all, among the most inconvenient and unnecessary noises, the urban cleaning must be pointed: the unpleasant scavenging machines in the vicinity of 100 dB, apart the absurd beep when they reverse or their stressful light pollution – equipments that go together with by “air gun carriers’”, top-mask and earplugs outfitted, raising dust clouds in the din with a volume of noise just about unbelievable – especially when you compare with the very human scavengers who still survive. All these issues must be fought, and there are many resources to do so, starting with the municipalities – now the main causing actors of noise.

Otherwise, cities as microcosm would become unsustainable.

Related posts:

>>Sustainable Cities for Freedom and Environment (1) – An Overview on Urban Developmental Evidences
>>Sustainable Cities for Freedom and Environment (2) – Prospects, Proposals and Local Agenda-21

The debate on French national identity: an off-topic nationalist manipulation

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Who does not perceive that the French government, especially the president and his namesake minister on ‘organized evictions’, is engaged in a great manipulation!

Pétain and Hitler meet at Montoire

Pétain and Hitler meet at Montoire

First recovering (trends and far-right voters, it is not new), then diverting classic emotions through woolly smoker screen approaches, in the absence of the real deal with economic and social problems (crisis, employment deficit, housing, etc..), instead of facing – together with national representants – local and international challenges of all kinds.

No surprise, of course, we never expected anything from them. Not to speak of those – the government and other relatives – who condone the worst. But the opposition Socialists? Opposed so little that they endorse this false debate, a shameful nationalist manoeuvre, symptom of an opportunist and reactionary policy, rather than strengthen Europe and think and act more internationally yet. French leaders not only go on sinking at high speed into the economic wall but they precipitate the disastrous consequences by a nationalist suicidal policy –worthy of their own incompetence. Promising tomorrows, even if we yet know the song.

By dint of whipping the undocumented, this eternally frustrated France says it should be in order, too, and be able therefore to exhibit the evidence of its identity. M. Sarkozy, have you ever heard of egotism, this narcissistic tendency to be analyzed and to talk about oneself?

Being myself son and grand-son of Spaniards, I can say that this debate makes me want to vomit because with such approaches, this dear country sinks deeper into the darkest mess conservatism.

Drug trafficking and imperialism

US imperial mentality in the fight against drug trafficking

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At a recent conference [1], the original and always rightly incisive Noam Chomsky, referred to US military bases installed in Colombia, with the official purpose of assisting the Government of Bogotá in the war on drugs.

Mexico's Federal Police officers escort suspects of working for a drug trafficking gang, as they are shown to the media in Mexico City

Mexico's Federal Police officers escort suspects of working for a drug trafficking gang, as they are shown to the media in Mexico City

He called to consider a similar case but with different actors. Suppose, he said, that Colombia, China or any other country claim their right to establish military bases in Mexico, in order to fumigate and destroy US tobacco plantations in North Carolina or Kentucky, traditional breeders of this plant. The plan would be enhanced by blocking the production areas through the action of air and naval forces, while sending inspectors to verify the overall elimination of such plantations. All this would aim to prevent tobacco trafficking towards countries suffering its effects.

Chomsky points out that smoking has provided evidence to be more lethal than alcohol, which in turn is more harmful than the use of cocaine or heroin, and these are, in turn, more harmful than cannabis. If in addition to the number of deaths caused by harmful products inhaled by smokers, we take account of those caused to “passive” smokers – though their number is difficult to determine – it is quite sure that the overall lethal outcome of nicotiana tabacum will exceed that of the remaining drugs as a whole. It would be quite logical to pursue more actively tobacco growers than coca’s.

Clearly this assumption is not plausible in the reality of today, not only because tobacco in most countries is not a banned substance while many drugs are. However, when facing this relentless logic, what should be asked is why this happens. Why the US, who say they feel adversely affected by drugs that come from south of the Rio Grande, naturally attributed the right to deploy their armies in Colombia to combat coca growers in the area, and it is even conceivable that no other country could do likewise when its interests are affected similarly.

For Chomsky, the answer is simple and it has an unquestionable bottom: the imperial mentality that exists in the US, so deep-seated in North American minds that it pass unnoticed. Should we add here that this frame of mind also exists – on a smaller scale – in many Western countries.

However, the results so far obtained seem to justify the effort committed. The “war on drugs” has lasted more than four decades in Colombia and has intensified over the past ten years, neither the food nor drug trafficking have declined. The reasons offered by Chomsky leaves no doubts. Several studies show that well-funded prevention and treatment of drug addiction are much more effective than coercive measures used in this endless war. And the preventive or curative treatment of drug-consumers in this business-has a performance cost-effectiveness improved over 20 times to the attacks against growers supplier-side-in “chemical warfare” waged to destroy the fields of drugs.

According to Chomsky, only two scenarios would explain the current situation: Either the US leaders have been consistently fools for 40 years, or the purpose of the war on drugs is very different than what is proclaimed. If one excludes no further the hypothesis of insanity, then what may be the real reasons for this alleged war?

Inside the US two main facts are obvious: the cleaning of the socially less useful (which has led the US into the world’s first place on top of prison population rate) and, as with the “war on terror”, dependence and subjugation of a population terrorized by the danger of drugs, to stop showing its angry opposition to economic policies that have led to the largest social imbalance that the US has ever suffered.

Meanwhile, abroad, the war on drugs is a way of hiding in Colombia – and other countries –some of the most iniquitous antisubversive operations. Colombia is the second country in the world (after Sudan) with more population driven out their homes, while local oligarchies and multinationals occupy the land abandoned by farmers and transform them into mining, agro-industrial production, intensive livestock or infrastructure for industry – whose benefits hardly benefit to concerned populations.

Now it’s time to ask whether Obama will follow the winding road – yet partly covered by his predecessors but in opposition to which he has not revealed much indignation as he showed with e.g. Guantanamo – or on the contrary, he has enough support, resources and intentions to leave the swamped problem that Chomsky clearly presents and whose resolution is difficult and complex, since it not only depends on the White House decisions, although they can point the beginning of a new path.

[1] Noam Chomsky, Militarizing Latin America. In chomsky.info. August 30, 2009

The US economic revival just (provisionally) around the corner

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The US economy yesterday offered a robust data that, at least temporarily, allowed closing the world’s largest economic downturn since the Second World War.

eu-budget-deficits

Budget deficits, 2001-2010, by EU region · Déficit presupuestario 2001-2010 por región UE (Source: Ronan Lyons Economic Analysis, Oct. 16, 2009)

American GDP growth in the third quarter was 3.5% after four consecutive quarters’ drops. The positive data was expected by analysts, but the strength of the US economy stunned – and pleased – the world stock markets and particularly the Dow Jones index, which rose above 2%. The turnaround from the Q2 (-0.4%) suggests that the incentive plans of the U.S. government, an interest rate of 0% practice, the takeoff of the upturn in private consumption and housing are sufficiently solids to undertake corrections in a few months which would put the economy outside the ICU. If so, we would not be far from a very modest increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, an assessment that, sooner or later, should be followed by the European Central Bank, especially if consolidating the growth in Germany and France. In the case of Spain, data also released yesterday show the fifth consecutive quarter of economic decline, although it is true that the deterioration has been moderating in the last three quarters we have moved from -1.9% (Q1) and -1.1% (Q2) to -0.4% in Q3. We are, according to the Bank of Spain, in an “incipient recovery” that entails a great deal of risks: the worst unemployment rates, intolerably increasing next to18.2%, deficit escalating close to 10% of GDP and an upward  lack of credit to businesses and individuals.According to the latest figures in relation to countries under the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) of the European Commission, the general government deficit of the euro area lay at 6.1% of GDP in 2009.As a result, the EU-15 public debt the will increase as of 69.3% GDP in 2008 to 78.4% in 2009. By 2010, however, it is expected to further increase on average 6.6% of GDP.At disaggregated level, most euro area countries in 2009 recorded a deficit exceeding the 3% of GDP, while all euro zone countries will infringe the maximum allowable deficit in 2010, according to latest IMF estimates.

Thus deficit cuts jump out over 0.5% per year, mostly in countries with higher deficits.

And what are these countries? Ireland, Greece and Spain showed the highest euro area’s gap budget, both in 2009 and 2010. In particular, Ireland’s public deficit will reach a rate close to 13% of GDP, according to recent estimates. Greece exceeds 12%, while Spain recorded a deficit of 9.5%, along with the IMF.

In 2010, these three countries will continue to be leaders in fiscal imbalance: Ireland (13.3%), Spain (12.5%), while Greece will approach 10%, given its public accounts inaccuracy, only just admonished by the Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker.

A pedagogy on carbon tax

Carbon tax on the way back to Welfare Economics

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>> Click here to translate this page to French

Designing a tax for everything that contaminates incites people to preserve environment, the atmosphere in particular, which is in serious danger. The idea is to penalize polluting energy in transport, housing and personal consumption. Every time we consume less fuel but this is not enough to achieve the goals set at the last conference on climate change: hence the idea to programme a compulsory tax (to be paid per tonne of fossil fuel issued). This in order that the world decrease to half the emissions of greenhouse gas (2050) and limit Earth warming to 2 degrees – which causes climate change.

Global warming due to greenhouse gases from the combustion of carbon dioxide is 49,000 million tons of CO2 emissions. Enough is enough, this must be punishable. Its effects could lead to an overall increase of 3% of the temperature within approximately 100 years. The cost of global warming is estimated at 5,500,000 million (Nicholas Stern) [1]. While the concept of a tax on CO2 emissions comes from Arthur Pigou (Economics of Welfare) [2] who, in 1920, first established the polluter pays principle.

Now …

  • Should we tax the product itself or the energy consumed?
  • What about taxing imported products?
  • How do we avoid the risks of inequality?
  • What can we do with the tax revenue?

The solutions adopted by each country are different.
France, with about 50,000 million of environmental taxation laid up, shows a certain delay. The structure of French environmental taxation is so unwise by voluntarism emphasis that it will not generate benefits in the sense of net contribution or revenue – but only more taxes on water, on garbage, on the consumption of hydrocarbons (TIPP) which are not reversed in any improvements (infrastructure, citizen responsibilization); on the contrary, it is the umpteenth patch covering the phenomenal public deficit hole. The pedagogy turns into a demagogic fatalistic verbiage as to mislead the common man – because it ignores the virtues of consensus that in all the surrounding countries is originated in the parliamentary debate, which is where popular sovereignty revives up and where such taxation should be decided, not in the halls of the presidential palace – a very usual symptom in the French Republic whose skin politicians refuse to change. These rates represent 3% of GDP … thrown away. Unless considering France as the cleanest country in Europe thanks to its huge nuclear program, which on the contrary converts this country in less safe by the obvious potential for nuclear incidents due to its atomic central park and may involve in quantity of radioactive wastes concerned – the highest per capita in the world. The rhetoric continues, forward flight, too. The only positive point is that hydroelectricity accounts for 93% of energy resources … with the aggravated disadvantage that the driving force’s the nuclear cell. Who do we kidding? If the decrease in CO2 emissions must involve the breakneck growth of the nuclear beast, then where do we go? Stripped from one mouth to feed another.

Moreover, the tax on CO2 emissions in a country is not really quantifiable to impact CO2 emissions at the global level. Global policies are needed to internalize environmental costs and act on the behaviour of firms and households. That is the healthier principle. France is wrong in the way of carrying it out: confusion over the extent rate itself (cheerfully going from 20 to 32 for up to 100 euros / TN emitted by 2030, then left who can say where?) over the exemptions, over its operation. The increased cost of living is set: estimated at 10% the additional costs of household heating in French homes by 2010, from 5 to 10 cts. for a liter of fuel at the pump now. Another consequence is that the tax, as is, will ruin the remaining local industry (current bleeding is the largest ever seen in France) and as usual,  only a few (large) groups will afford to face such additional costs in the midst of an industrial desert. Who will invest in a country that overtaxes 100 euros each emitted CO2 TN? As for the wicked 35h law, nor study or reflection has been implemented and no effort tryed to coordinate with other European countries. The devil is in the details, French say …

The topic of compensation is often talked about, but what about inequality between consumers? What to do with the € 8,000 million that the government is supposed to enter through the concept (e.g. fatten the coffers of the ministry of finance)?

Swedish pedagogy against French demagogy
Other countries as Sweden have also established a carbon tax, even more substantial, but with a very different modus operandi: e.g. Swedish tax implies a graduated scale for companies that invest more in technological innovation to improve production processes in CO2 emission – now that is pedagogy. It’s bad times in terms of economic crisis situation but action is credible in Sweden and demagogic in France where nobody knows whether the tax will be redistributed or yet another ‘neutral’ tax – that is, outside of Pigouvian incitement, which has the favour of Prime Minister Fillon.
Because the environment policy can not be summarized to raise the level of taxation or implementing new taxes, unless you’re old tricks again and increase unemployment and public debt. Two years back here it was the bonus / malus tax on car CO2 emissions (an onerous  marketing device that ruined much of the automotive industry, with a fall of 40% of French production, forcing car manufacturers to abandon the profitable manufacture of sedans to engage in small cars’ on which the profit margin is zero or nearly zero), last year was the tax on diapers for newborns turn, this year it is the time of a tax on CO2 emissions … a joke (or better yet, a shortsighted policy).
The temptation to tax the super profits of the oil industry (Ségolène Royal) would only have negative repercussions in the pocket of the consumers. Better a tax that changes that behaviour and not simply going to fatten the coffers of the state and its lifestyle. Report and well communicate with citizen, having a little patience not changing everything at a stroke or by decree.
Taxation reforms are essential throughout our countries. We talk about tax incentive and not subsidies e.g. car industries so that they manufacture a kind of cars that they would have made anyway. Let’s face green taxes; it is just and necessary, but mostly to help us getting out from the unending virtual crisis of rampant capitalism, far from the real economy. No green custom duties at European borders, a trend advocated by some, in their eagerness, to lead us into a new protectionism; but rather concentrating on comprehensive policies, at least in Europe, better globally. It is useless to establish national policies not coordinated with the rest of countries, giving way to protectionist policies more or less latent: have a look on the global trade drop of 12%, if you want to add more crisis to crisis just add the perversion of protectionism to all the difficulties we face today. The environment is a global public good. To be honest we do not know how to deal with externalities steadily i.e. when China or Brazil pollute, they do not so in their respective territories only but in the entire world. Enforcing tariffs however is theoretically a nice building, but in practice it is just about regression. Also do not forget that China’s censure is unfair: the PRC is making genuine efforts to drastically reduce pollution in its industries – and it still does not occur in most of developed countries.

One of the biggest questions is to identify what the US attitude will be. So far the US had no concern on the Kyoto Protocol; the position is changing but it all depends on the type of changes that comes about there. Scenarios abroad are in my opinion: the role of the G20, the Doha WTO round re-launch and the climate meeting in Copenhagen. All three turn around the same concern: the need for global economic governance to meet challenges.

Pedagogy missing in the US and UK.
The increasing size of speculative capital flows, mainly in US and UK, is the pending business. I mean speculative capitals and hot money outflows are bigger now than a year ago – in the worst moment of financial-mortgage crisis. Hot money is tossed into the emerging economies as the first symptom relief crops up. Thus, the central bank of China is increasingly doomed to buy huge reserves to support a sick dollar (thus some $ 70,000 million per month, are beyond the circuit of productive investments in order to prevent the US currency to collapse again), deflecting precisely investment in productive economy. That is, in essence, we have not yet altered the global imbalances, and even we are somewhat higher than before the crisis. The issue of executive bonuses and allowances is less significant than the required dismantling of the opacity in the banking investment -something impossible in the most key European financial center, the City of London, since the future PM Cameron opposes to it. This, in US terms, is yet unimaginable. So far the best indicators of the City and NY – queues at the best restaurants – behave well as table reservations vary from 2 to 3 months … bonuses, windfalls, luxury cars, stratospheric contracts are just around the corner again. To pin a button: flows exchanged in the derivatives markets reached a record of vertigo – almost 10 times world’s GDP. So how can David control Goliath?

To be continued …

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[1]  The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change is a report on the impact of climate change and global warming on the world economy. Written by economist Sir Nicholas Stern, commissioned by the UK government, the report was published in October 2006. The report represents a milestone by becoming the first government report commissioned by an economist rather than a climatologist.

[2] Arthur Pigou is considered the founder of welfare economics and the main precursor of the environmental movement to make the distinction between social and private marginal expenses and advocate for state intervention through subsidies and taxes to correct market failures and internalize externalities. Welfare Economics is his most emblematic book.

Caótica Ana – Julio Medem

El retorno de un psiquiatra admirador de la belleza femenina

“Mi hermana Ana Medem era pintora, y lo sigue siendo a través de sus cuadros. El inicio de este viaje lo voy a contar sin pisar mucho la tierra, un poco por encima para sufrir lo menos posible. El día 7 de abril de 2001, mi hermana inauguraba su exposición de pintura (la más extensa de su trayectoria) en unas bodegas de Cariñena, al sur de Zaragoza. Llegando en coche a esta comarca de vinos volví a reconocer el tono rojizo de los paisajes de Tierra, mi tercera película, que rodé allí hacía cinco años. Mi hermana nos …

>> Más información aquí / Read more here:    Caótica Ana – Julio Medem
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Julio Medem’s Chaotic Ana

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>> Cliquez ici pour la traduction en Français

The come back of a psychiatrist who turned into a devoted admirer of woman’s beauty

“My sister Ana Medem was a painter, and she still remains it through her paintings. I’ll enlighten the beginning of this trip without setting the feet on the floor, above enough to suffer as little as possible. On 7 April 2001, my sister celebrated her largest exhibition of paintings at a winery resort in Carignan, south of Zaragoza, Spain. Arriving by car to this wine region I again recognized the reddish hue of the landscapes of Tierra (Earth), my third film that I shot there five years back. My sister should meet us, relatives and friends, at the entrance hall of the exhibition. That is, the people she most wanted were waiting for her, by a closed door that she should open. A few minutes before the fixed opening time, three kilometers away, my sister died in a car accident. We did not enter the exhibition. I have in my mind a full moon in the sky in late afternoon, almost red, and almost over the highway, while driving my car to Zaragoza
The next day, before they closed my sister’s coffin , I decided – and I told her – that one day I would shoot a film on her. “

[My journey with Ana, Julio Medem, El País, 12 August 2007]

chaotic ana indexAna is a free spirit who turns her passion for life in painting. Justine, a cosmopolitan patron, invites her to complete her training in Madrid with a group of artists she sponsors. It will be the beginning of a journey, not only physical, which will lead her to discover new continents, past lives and ancient myths. Ana attempts to break the chain of ancestral violence looming on doors painted in a wall, and at the end of the adventure she will choose if she becomes a monster or a princess.

Medem still retains much of what I admire in the storytelling way of a camera movie. Recurrent elements, if you may, always pull on the emotions and sadness that turn into beauty, like Ana´s image at sea, a resource that Medem already used in Sex and Lucia –whereas on this occasion it is brought to mind through young actress Manuela Vallés.

This appeal to aesthetics – and the use of music, wind sound or photographic colors as part of the plot – makes many of us love this film director with the same force as many criticize him for the same reason, turning Medem into the objective of the same worn arguments that were pointed against Kieslowski or the Dogma filmmakers.

We face first and foremost a good artwork – sometimes very close but not yet a masterpiece – that does not achieve the freshness of Sex and Lucia and Lovers of the Arctic Circle. In my opinion, the best films of Medem are those who have delved into the intimate territory and madness of human beings without needing to explore beyond their natural environment for survival. Whatever the case, and after having been attacked by the fascists for the documentary The Basque Ball: Skin against Stone, the come back of this unique psychiatrist, that has become a devoted worshipper of woman’s beauty, is good news.

After the wonderful Lovers of the Arctic Circle and his masterpiece Sex and Lucia, Chaotic Ana is an intense and ambitious film, beautifully acted – though some characters are undeveloped (Charlotte Rampling’s).

It is noteworthy that the British composer and pianist Jocelyn Pook is the person behind the original soundtrack.

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Something smells bad in Wall Street

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Wall Street thriller goes on…

galleon corruption

For some time, something smells bad in Wall Street, and despite the outright rejection that the greed of the system brings about, fraud is still the order of the day.

This time, the offensive from the authorities did not take long to show up when last Friday 16th October six people were arrested for using illegal inside trading in a financial hedge fund. Among them, investment managers Raj Rajaratnam – a 52 year Sri Lanka billionaire –  and the hedge fund guru Mark Kurland, who handled $ 7,000 million dollars assets. Wall Street thriller goes on.

Along with four more people under arrest, they have been charged with profiting from insider information and manipulating assets that caused more than $ 20 million illegal profits. According to FBI records, this case has emerged as the largest fraud in hedge funds, investment funds that have been targeted since the beginning of the crisis on its no supervision and facilities open to fraudulent transactions.

The dismantling of this organization – orchestrated by Rajaratnam Galleon Group initiator –was made possible through wiretaps performed by the FBI. With this, the research bureau shows that the office gives to these fraud cases the same treatment than fighting drug trafficking and organized crime. Similar to Bernard Madoff, Rajaratnam enjoyed a great protection net due to be an active donor of resources to political parties.

After accusations of inefficiency and delays in monitoring cases like Bernard Madoff, SEC and the FBI have started up operational plans to clean the large image of corruption surrounding the financial sector. Rajaratnam and Kurland’s fall is just one of many to come. Part of the resolution of conflicts that sparked the current crisis, settles into purge the image of the financial sector and eliminate corporate wrongdoing.

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Dark Memories of the Dirty War

Chronicle of a valient journalist during the painful emergence of the Argentine dictatorship

dirtysecretsdirtywar Dirty Secrets, Dirty War: The Exile of Robert J. Cox (Buenos Aires, Argentina: 1976-1983)” by David Cox, Evening Post Publishing, June 2009

David Cox is the Robert Cox’s son, former editor of the Buenos Aires Herald and one of the few journalists courageous enough to report on the many disappearances and horrific violence that took place during Argentina’s Dirty War. David, 13 years old when his father and the rest of the family finally fled Argentina after years of close scrapes and tears, here presents the memoir of his father, writing in the foreword, admits that he still finds too painful to author himself. Punctuating his historical narrative of the escalating conflict with affectionate anecdotes about his large, tight-knit, and literary family, Cox the son wavers between nostalgia for the Buenos Aires of his childhood and flashbacks of the terrifying episodes that ultimately pressed the family to leave. But this book’s true focus is Cox the father, who emerges as an emblem of journalistic courage, suffering anxiety and asthma with silent tenacity while reporting on human-rights violations (and in some cases, causing the disappeared to be freed). An important primary source for Latin American recent history and an inspiring account to prevent future opportunists to take over again.

Robert Cox has risked his life to chronicling the early years of the Dirty War in Argentina (1976-1983), which has caused thousands of deaths. A few decades later he still can not write his own history or describe how he experienced this deadly junta. Now his son David does so, revealing how an editor of a small English-daily in South America, the Buenos Aires Herald, has courageously covered the kidnapping and murder that took place there when most his colleagues were silent.

Evolved into the race leading to the military coup of 1976 and in the chaos that has reigned later in Argentina, the book tells what led David’s father to write about the atrocities that were rampant. “This is the book that I never managed to write,” says the man 75 years in the preface. “Wounds are too deep so that I can write on this dark period.”  A plan backed by the military junta indeed encouraged people to silence real or perceived enemies, and caused that thousands of people were left in clandestine torture centers. Official figures set to have 13 000 people disappeared; groups working for human rights relate more 30 000 people killed instead. “Our family lives with this story for years,” said David Cox, 42, who spent his childhood in Argentina. “We all want my father to write his story because it affected us all one way.”

The Herald has been a pioneer in spreading the alarm. The military “issued him a warning to convince him to rally, but he continued to publish lists providing the names of the disappeared,” reminds F. Allen “Tex” Harris, an American diplomat who was in Argentina at that time. The Argentines went to the Herald when the authorities refused to provide information on their missing relatives, as the newspaper tried to lobby the government on them. There were very few people in the country who dared to speak. But the stories of Cox caught the world’s attention after he became a recognized journalist in the New York Times and The Washington Post.

For some time yet, the junta let Cox and The Herald go on practice their valiant journalism. “He printed a newspaper in English and as few Argentines knew that language, the military could not see him as someone threatening,” [...] “If someone criticized the lack of press freedom, he could always point to Cox,” added Harris. Cox was finally shut up in prison for a day after writing editorials urging the government to release imprisoned journalists. In 1979 he found himself forced to leave Argentina because of death threats against his family. David Cox describes, among other things, that he took different ways to get the school and that his family was traveling in an old Peugeot to avoid attracting police attention. “The feeling of terror now seems remote, but it is still in me.”

Despite all the risks he was taking, Robert remained “a very humble man” who simply reported what was happening in Argentina when others have refused to do so. “In his right mind, he did his job as a journalist.”

A concise, objective and engaging report on a very dark period in Argentine history. Highly recommended for anyone with an interest in understanding this very complex yet so attractive country. A first class journalistic job, and homage to Robert Cox, an unrelenting and solitary fighter for freedom and the rule of law when people most needed someone like him.

>>Click here to translate this page to Spanish
>>Click here for French version

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Terrorism and Justice

The Need to Compensate Victims of Terrorism

Arecent terrorist attack in Pechawar (Pakistan)OOOEuskadi-Ta-AskatasunaOOOtwins collapse

>> Haga click aquí para la versión en Castellano

Victims of terrorist acts, such as the DC-10 UTA [1], or Baghdad or Kabul have several nationalities: Congolese, Algerians, Spanish, Chad, French, Iraqis, Americans, Afghans… Some have been compensated, others not; some were able to file a claim for civil damages in a criminal proceeding, while others will never have such a chance. It is this disparity between the nationalities that criticizes professor Ghislaine Doucet [2], a specialist in international humanitarian law. Solutions do exist:

The first alternative would be to set up  an international global fund to compensate victims, just like the Fond de Garantie (Guarantee Fund) existing in France. I firmly believe that there are ways for such a fund, so as not to leave the victims in distress. Because too many victims of terrorism, since they are seriously injured, physically as morally, can not find a job – for those who have one – and they are therefore in utter destitution. And then the second option is a universal criminal justice response, because all victims of terrorism have no chance to face the perpetrators of the crimes they have suffered or that their relatives have suffered.

Access to justice is key element but when national justice systems are unable or unwilling to judge the International Criminal Court could take over. However, it has been decided at the ICC’s foundation that it would have jurisdiction to try war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide, but not terrorism. However, a crime of terrorism may, in some cases be considered a crime against humanity. Mariana Pena [3], specialist and IFHR/FIDH Liaison Officer with the ICC in The Hague:

These conditions should not be widespread or systematic [...] But an attack should have been instigated against the civilian population – with or without knowledge of the attack, which is often the case when a terrorist hit occurs.

And then the question of defining terrorism has long been an obstacle to further discussions on reparation and justice. According Ghislaine Doucet obstacles to the definition is a false debate [2]:

Terrorism on the international level is clearly defined. In times of armed conflict, acts of terrorism are explicitly prohibited by the Geneva Conventions. Beyond the act of terrorism, such as hostage taking, are prohibited. Attacks against civilians are prohibited. So these are prohibited acts and then punishable. Conversely, in peacetime, we have thirteen international instruments [4] which prohibit the use of terrorism. And that furthermore require states that are parties to these instruments to punish these acts. [...]

So if you are able to classify internationally, such as acts of terrorism and therefore these acts were punishable under criminal law, why the phenomenon of terrorism is not defined?

It is however clearly defined because otherwise we would not have all these international instruments. [...] All acts of terrorism in their different facets are almost covered by these international instruments. The crux of the problem is not so much defining but to determine its scope (that is, competency areas). [2]

And that’s what the UN faces for years, seeking to establish an international convention banning terrorism. Some wish that the actions undertaken by the armed forces of a State do not fall within the definition of terrorism. Others would exclude acts of resistance on behalf of the right of peoples to self-determination. These are questions that also face the victims of terrorism and their relatives.

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[1] 19 September 1989 a UTA DC10-30 aircraft,crashed near N’Djamena, Chad, as a result of an explosion in flight due to a bomb. All 156 passengers and 15 crew were killed.

[2] Terrorisme, victimes et responsabilité pénale internationale. (Terrorism, Victims and International Criminal Responsibility). Paris, Calmann-Lévy, 2003

[3] IFHR (International Federation of Human Rights) special representative at the ICC, The Hague

[4] UN Treaties and Protocols

Who Wants Judge Garzon’s Head on a Platter?

Judge Garzon on the Spotlight of the The Spanish High Court

BGarzon017

Judge Garzón said Spain learned that torture doesn't work.

The career of the Spanish star judge –who became famous for having ordered, in November 1998, the arrest in London of former Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet for « genocide, terrorism and torture » – is on the edge now. The Court of criminal appeal of the Spanish High Court is about to charge him for « corruption in the performance of his functions ». If indicted, the « super judge » from the Audiencia Nacional – i.e., the National Criminal Court, the highest criminal court of Spain – would be immediately suspended whereas pending for trial.

What was his crime? Unlocking [October 18, 2008] – and at the request of families – an investigation on the ‘forced’ disappearances of 114 000 Republicans – that the judge reclassified then as ‘crimes against humanity’ – during the Spanish Civil War (1936-1939) and Franco dictatorship. Unsurprisingly, this initiative stirred up the far right troops and brought about a mutiny against « reopening old wounds ». But also a part of the government and the Socialist Party, who saw an attack on the shortcomings of the  Ley de memoria histórica (Law on Historical Memory), painfully adopted a year earlier.

The Attorney General, Cándido Conde-Pumpido, has requested the annulment of proceedings as well. He is arguing the incompetence of the Audiencia Nacional on this subject. The prosecution’s appeal was accepted [December 2, 2008]. The case might have ended there if in the meantime Baltasar Garzon did not step down himself |November 18] by returning his jurisdiction to local judges: each of them can therefore arrange the opening of graves and exhumations within their jurisdiction. « He acted as if he was putting aside the atomic bomb – i.e. closing the case –» whereas « he was disseminating a lot of small bombs across the country » [1].

The controversy has shifted from political scope to the judiciary when in January 2009 a criminal complaint was filed by two extreme-right organizations, a ghostly « union of civil servants » called ‘Manos Limpias’ (Clean Hands) and the Association ‘Identidad y Libertad’ (Freedom and identity). [2] The criminal complaint reproaches judge Garzon violating the 1977 amnesty law – based on a tacit « pact of oblivion », supposed to ease the Spanish transition to democracy; and also for his persistent willingness to investigate facts that he was aware they were supposedly prescribed and amnestied by introducing the concept of   ‘crimes against humanity’  which did not exist at the time of civil war.

priests assassinated in Salvador

Judge Garzon has received cases connected to rights abuses in several countries

Most likely, Baltasar Garzon would not risk his professional future in this business without the excess of zeal of some judicial colleagues. Besides the ideological dimension of the case, there is a suspected game of settling scores – a payback related to Judge Garzon’s personality, whose liking for notoriety and spectacular methods annoys most of his equals [Well, I do not think for that reason his goodwill and performances become worthless... unless they are inversely proportional)

The complaint against judge Garzon was admissible on May 26, by a commission chaired by Judge Adolfo Prego, whose ultraconservative sympathies are notorious. As a member of the Honorary Board of the ‘Foundation for Defense of the Spanish nation’ (Dena), he had signed along with other jurists, a particularly aggressive text in opposition to the Law on Historical Memory, reproving it for « glorifying as martyrs of freedom many of the worst criminals that darkened our history. » [3]

The examining magistrate, who took Garzon’s deposition for nearly four hours [September 9] – and who could make him return to the dock – is on the contrary a man clearly on the left side of the chessboard. He, Luciano Varela, is close to the Vice-President of the Spanish Government, Maria Teresa Fernandez de la Vega, and has never hidden his dislike for the ‘super judge’ manners. This high figure is a brilliant lawyer, founder of the renowned association ‘Jueces para la Democracia’ (JpD, Judges for Democracy), nicknamed by his colleagues « O Guerrilleiro » (the ‘guerrilla partisan’) because of his radical sentences. According to journalist Julio Lazaro from ‘El Pais’ Varela  has « an ego as boundless as that of Garzon. » [3]

The defendant’s counsel pleaded the closing of the complaint [October 1] before the High Court. « The assertion that Judge Baltasar Garzon has acted unfairly does not stand – says Gonzalo Martinez-Fresneda. In truth, abandoning the families who demanded justice would have been unjust. » Most analysts think case dismissal is unlikely, because of the fighting spirit demonstrated by Luciano Varela during the questioning of Judge Garzon. At best, Garzon could benefit from a period proviso the High Court demands further investigation.

Civilian refugees from the Spanish Civil War

Civilian refugees from the Spanish Civil War

Spanish journalists seem to anticipate an unfavorable outcome for what they call the «  fallen angel ». The holder of the Fifth Chamber of the National Court, aged 54, is now on its own. As a tireless worker, he has processed about 7 000 cases in twenty years and has imprisoned more than 1 000 ETA activists and supporters –as many enemies.

The rejection of his candidacy for president of the National Court, in March, was a sign of his low popularity in the judiciary. «Whatever the decision of Luciano Varela is, there’s no doubt: the High Court jar has overflowed, and if not this time it will be done the next one.» [2][3] Several other complaints, in further cases are in the waiting room, just in case. The international prestige of Baltasar Garzon, the support of the International Commission of Jurists and the mobilization of Franco victims’ families may not weigh sufficiently. Hopefully not so. Spanish democracy can not (and might not) do without a man as judge Garzon.

It is comforting however to observe that he has not yet thrown in the towel.   Not at all.
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Related Posts:
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[1]  Spanish Judge Seeks Names of Victims in Franco Era, NY Times, September 1, 2008

[2] La defensa de Garzón pide el archivo de la querella ‘franquista’. El Pais, Oct. 1 & 2, 2009

[3] Garzón, en el punto de mira. El Pais, Sept. 21, 2009

Sustainable Cities for Freedom and Environment (2)

Prospects, Proposals and Local Agenda-21

environmentcollage1

The first part of the analysis did consider the cities’ future –an analysis on ancient and current cities in a world becoming increasingly overpopulated.

This time we look after the portfolio of proposals on sustainable ages about the so-called Local Agenda 21. I would stress the importance of the issue, its impact on the social debate: while the 19th century witnessed social debate focused on class struggle, the latter part of the 20th century has been polarized on the ecological risks –which are no longer tied to a specific place of origin but their nature, pose a threat to all forms of life on the planet. That was precisely the widespread thesis at Stockholm-72 by Barbara Ward and Rene Dubos in their book ”Only One Earth”. With themes already raised earlier, in 1972, by Philippe Saint Marc in his unforgettable book “Socialisation de la nature” (Socialization of Nature, now exhausted, even in French).

In other words, the ecological risks are above classes, to the point that, even sarcastic tone has been said that “poverty is hierarchic, while smog is democratic”. The ultimate consequence lays on the social dynamics of ecological threats that has overcome the traditional debates on income or social position – fighting the global warming, the Kyoto Protocol and the future Copenhagen Protocol.

In 1993 the Expert Group on the Urban Environment and the European Commission launched the first phase of the Sustainable Cities Project for the period 1993-1996, in order to (1) contribute to further reflection on sustainability, (2) encourage a wide exchange experiences and (3) circulate best practices of local sustainability. In the long term, the idea of making recommendations on local and regional issues of Member States and the European Union itself. This, in line with what was requested in 1991 at a resolution of the Council of Ministers of the EC.

Once constituted, the EGUE worked over three years in developing a European Sustainable Cities Report, with the help of Euronet, who played the role of scientific and technical secretariat. The EGUE was organized in a number of specialized committees on:

  • Social integration
  • Mobility and urban access
  • Planning and public spaces
  • Dissemination (i.e. Distribution of projects between the public)
  • Sustainable Social Systems
  • Leisure, tourism and environment quality
  • Technical management of cities
  • Holistic urban management
  • Urban Regeneration (Rehabilitation of neighborhoods and housing)

With so many nuances in plain view, the Report group focused on the relationship between institutional and environmental aspects in order to estimate the chances of local governments. Somewhat transcendent, against the attitude of state or semi-federal lands, as German Länder, Spanish Autonomous Communities and most of regional governments that hold so much power and sometimes behave as new centralist outbreaks. These bodies take up often resources more than anything needed by cities for multitasking – that anyone but they must assume, mostly in extremis.

The above circumstances require a thorough review of public policies to make them less authoritarian, rational and supportive, bearing that as a result of the ecosystems theory, the city is a complex whole, characterized by continuous change and development processes. In this approach, aspects such as energy consumption, waste generation, traffic and public transport are relevant.

But the EU obviously was not the only to deal with the issue and some experiences deserve to be stressed by far. Beginning with 1987, when eleven European cities (that number has grown to fifty so far) founded the Healthy Cities Programme for the World Health Organization OMS/WHO, intended for improving health conditions and interactive environment.

Furthermore in 1990, the United Nations Centre for Human Settlements – Habitat (UNCHS), started its own program of sustainable cities, aiming to provide developing countries with better systems for planning and environmental management.

Also in 1990, representatives from more than 200 local authorities around the world founded the International Council of Initiatives on Local Environment (ICLEI), promoting sustainable future, while counting with the sponsorship of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The ICLEI, which is based on the UN HQ in New York, is a local network for exchanging experiences, disseminating best examples of environmental do. ICLEI also promotes the Model Communities Program of Local Agenda 21 – a matter under discussion shortly below.

In August 1991, 130 cities have signed the Toronto Declaration on World Cities and Environment committed to develop sustainable development plans –incidentally, Canada, with Toronto and Montreal, is one of the most active countries on the issue at hand.

Meanwhile, in May 1992, 45 cities participate in the World Urban Forum – relied to the United Nations Conference on Environment, signed the Commitment of Curitiba (Brazil) in defense of sustainable urban development. A document outlining the guidelines for action to follow when developing plans for sustainable development, always in collaboration with authorities and citizens.

Likewise, the scheme of Urban Management UNDP (United Nations Development based in Nairobi) and the World Bank (1993) should be mentioned.

To complete the list of proposals made on sustainable cities, a mention is necessary conc. the Urban Program OECD (1994), aimed to improve knowledge on ecosystems in urban areas, evaluate examples of good work, and measure the effectiveness of local authorities policies and other public institutions, private or volunteer at various levels of government. Within the Urban Program, the Ecological Cities Project deserves specific mention in this analysis (will shape a further article).

In the same line of initiatives for sustainable cities, the EU Member States committed themselves at the Lisbon European Council in June 1992 to develop national plans of implementation of Local Agenda 21. An action plan born in the United Nations Conference on Environment held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 (Earth Summit) and later developed at European level in the Aalborg Charter where the fundamental notes of the process of Local Agenda 21 were adopted:

  • Sustainability, as an idea of preservation of natural capital. This requires that the consumption of natural resources, water and renewable energy does not exceed the capacity of natural systems to replenish them – and the speed at which we consume nonrenewable resources do not exceed the rate of replacement by sustainable renewable resources. Environmental sustainability also means that the rate of emitted pollutants does not go beyond the regeneration capacity of air, water and soil on which they work. Environmental sustainability also means the maintenance of biodiversity, public health and air quality, water and soil at levels sufficient to sustain human life and welfare, as well as the flora and fauna.
  • Working within ecosystems, with regards to their capacity, and always linking the systems created by humans with natural ecosystems, and taking them as management models.
  • Citizen participation. Sustainable development means making important decisions between conflicting objectives and major changes in the way of life of communities and therefore can not be imposed from above.

The collaboration of citizens is a direct consequence of the principles of partnership and shared responsibility in terms of:

  • Acceptance and social support to the Plan.
  • Assumption of commitments and responsibilities on the part of society.
  • Acceptance of certain actions and proceedings which entail some sacrifice in the population, it was an overall context would be difficult to raise and take politically.

Anyhow, the impact of Local Agenda 21 has not reached its potential, which is enormous. In a way, because the municipalities fear citizens who might assume progressive grasp on cities – that is, jeopardizing hierarchies.

It’s the level, stupid !

The end of the recession is still far off (and the spiral of decline did not hit bottom yet)

>> Haga clic aquí para la versión en castellano

A few analysts seem to think it is all over and have cheerfully proclaimed an end to the recession. Far from it. Normality is far off. It will take a very long time for production, employment and unemployment to return to pre-recession levels

The healine above is from the admonition of Mr. Mervyn King. The governor of the Bank of England, stated literally during a press conference:

“It’s the level, stupid — it’s not the growth rates, it’s the levels that matter here”

I got this quote from Mohamed El-Erian’s article in the Financial Times.  Dr. El-Erian coined the phrase the “New Normal” for economic growth.  While I agree with his conclusion, I don’t entirely agree with his analysis for the “New Normal”.

In his article Mr. El-Erian talks about how we are slipping back to the same analytical framework that encouraged “short-termism” and got us into this jam.

“Investors have not yet accepted his [Mr. Mervyn King] insight that the absolute levels of income, debt, wealth and unemployment, not just the rates of change, are what matters today. They need to, and soon.”

And we see this analytical framework at work everyday in the traditional business news media.  Take a look here US Consumer Spending Jumps the Most since 2001, thus pointing an economic rebounding… funny, if you click the link the title of the story changes to something less obvious.

So, let’s take a graphical look at some of the US indicators that Dr. El-Erian mentioned in the above quote.  First, income:

realdisposableincome

Interesting, could it be that the top income brackets are driving this higher?  But we still have a way to go to get back to “normal”.  How about consumption:

realpersonalconsumption

This is a huge problem.  We have done nothing to change our economic growth model that relies heavily on consumption.  If we maintain the status quo in terms of our economic growth model we have a very long long way back to “normal”.

What about debt levels?

householdcreditmarketdebt

Not a nice-looking picture.  If we look at overall levels of debt this is still too high.  Then how about the worst limitation on economic growth:

unemployed

No more words needed…

As Dr. El-Erian said:

“The longer it takes for investors and the policy consensus to shift to the appropriate analytical framework – one that factors in levels rather than just rates of change – the greater the risk of disappointment in 2010.”

I would emphasize that unless we change our framework and realize that we are heading towards a “new normal” with incredibly high structural unemployment and that we are not prepared to deal with it, we are bound to much greater problems than a bear market.

The promise of a new US president with fresh ideas has been eclipsed by developments: a economy more and more ‘contracted’, elevated unemployment and a devastated – and also wicked – financial system. Rigid new financial regulation and economic stimulus plans are at the order of the day but confidence will not be easily restored. After George Bush’s last exhausted years, a new political agenda takes shape. Greater international co-operation on global issues such us climate change have featured president Obama’s strategy. The US military presence in Iraq has also begun to slow down. Despite these ‘warmer’ guidelines, trade policy has definitely become more protectionist.

Censorship on the Internet

censorship

Be irrepressible, an Amnesty International campaign.

(Versión en Castellano)

Chat rooms monitored. Blogs deleted. Websites blocked. Search engines restricted. People imprisoned for simply posting and sharing information.

The Internet is a new frontier in the struggle for human rights. Governments – with the help of some of the biggest IT companies in the world – are cracking down on freedom of expression …

The web is a great tool for sharing ideas and freedom of expression. However, efforts to try and control the Internet are growing. Internet repression is reported in countries like China, Vietnam, Tunisia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria. People are persecuted and imprisoned simply for criticising their government, calling for democracy and greater press freedom, or exposing human rights abuses, online.

But Internet repression is not just about governments. IT companies have helped build the systems that enable surveillance and censorship to take place. Yahoo! have supplied email users’ private data to the Chinese authorities, helping to facilitate cases of wrongful imprisonment. Microsoft and Google have both complied with government demands to actively censor Chinese users of their services.

Freedom of expression is a fundamental human right. It is one of the most precious of all rights. We should fight to protect it.

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Database of censored material

Amnesty International is working with the OpenNet Initiative (ONI) to help raise awareness of internet censorship around the world.

The ONI is a collaboration among the Citizen Lab, Munk Centre for International Studies, University of Toronto, the Advanced Network Research Group at Cambridge University, the Berkman Center for Internet & Society at Harvard Law School UK, and the Oxford Internet Institute, plus partner non- governmental organizations worldwide.

The aim of the ONI is to document empirically patterns of Internet content filtering and surveillance worldwide behind national firewalls over an extended period of time. The ONI employs a unique methodology that combines in-field investigations by partners and associates within the countries under investigation and a suite of technical interrogation tools that probe the Internet directly for forensic evidence of content filtering and surveillance technologies.

Its 11 country reports have documented the scope, scale and sophistication of numerous filtering regimes worldwide, and have helped verify the use of US commercial filtering technologies, such as Smartfilter and Websense that are used in some ways to underpin these regimes. The ONI’s flash map of global filtering shows the results of these investigations.

The work of ONI is supported by the Information Program of the Open Society Institute and the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. ONI’s mapping work is supported by the International Development Research Centre (Canada).

The examples of censored material used for Irrepressible.info have been drawn from websites that have been blocked in one of the following countries – China, Iran, Myanmar, Tunisia, Uzbekistan, Syria and Vietnam, and are based on latest testing results available from each country.